Keep An Eye On Cocoa Prices
Cocoa futures surged as much as 7.9% on Friday to $11,068/ton in New York, approaching record levels once again, as mounting supply-side risks reignite upside price action. Persistent drought conditions across key West African growing regions—despite recent rain—continue to pressure the global production outlook, raising concerns over both mid-crop and main-crop harvests. The deteriorating weather backdrop and slowing port arrivals in top producer Ivory Coast have also reintroduced upward pressure on prices.
Analysts from BMI, a unit of Fitch Group, wrote last week that bullish price action „continues to be driven by concerns about weather conditions in West Africa weighing on the size and quality of the ongoing harvest.”
Data from the African Flood and Drought Monitor showed that droughts still cover at least 33% of Ghana and the Ivory Coast, sparking fears about production.
According to a Rabobank note, the Ivory Coast’s mid-crop has been of poor quality so far due to a lack of rain. The mid-crop, the smaller of the country’s two annual cocoa harvests and typically beginning in April, is now projected to reach 400,000 metric tons—down around 9% from last year’s 440,000 MT.
Traders are monitoring cocoa arrivals at Ivorian ports as the slowdown in shipment volumes raises concerns that already tight global supplies could face further pressure. So far this season, deliveries remain about 11% above last year, but the pace of arrivals has noticeably decelerated, signaling supply constraints ahead.
In New York, cocoa contracts erupted on Friday…
Cocoa prices jumped 18.5% during the week, the largest weekly gain since Nov. 15, 2024.
Higher cocoa prices will only bring forward demand destruction amongst consumers.
Tyler Durden
Mon, 05/19/2025 – 04:15
