Вы получаете сделку, и ВЫ получаете сделку, и ВЫ получаете сделку

By Maartie Wiiffelaars, Senior Economist At Rabobank

You get a deal and YOU get a deal and YOU get a deal. Trump seems to be making deals these days as Oprah once gave away cars. The UK, China, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates have all signed some kind of deal with the US in a week’s time – while Syria may be granted sanctions relief and Iran basically has to choose between a nuclear deal or stricter enforced sanctions on its oil exports.

Yet mutual benefit is not obvious in all of the above cases, and in any case skewed. The 10% universal tariff is still in place, with Chinese goods still being subject to a 20% to 30% import tariff hike – with the risk of much higher rates in 90 days if a conclusive deal cannot be reached in the meantime. Meanwhile, it has been rather silent recently on the front of Japan and Korean talks, while talks with India are still ongoing, and talks with South-East Asian countries and the EU off to a slow start. Although Scott Bessent recently said that talks with Japan had been “very productive”, conversations with Indonesia “very forthcoming” and the proposal from Taiwan to be “very good”.

So, essentially, half-way the 90-day reciprocal tariff pause, lots and lots of work still needs to be done to prevent the reciprocal rate increasing back again from 10% to 20% for the EU, to 26% for India, to 46% for Vietnam – China’s regional gateway to the US – and, perhaps, 54% for China itself. That is absent an extension of the pause of course.

With respect to US-India talks, India has so far lowered import tariffs on US Bourbon and motorcycles, among other things and Trump claimed India had „offered us a deal where basically they are willing to literally charge us no tariff”. To which India’s foreign minister replied by saying “nothing is decided till everything is” and that the deal would have to be mutually beneficial. One of the stumbling blocks highlighted in yesterday’s news was the US requests for India to open up its market for US ethanol – as the UK did. It will be difficult for India to accommodate, however, given its ambitions to reduce dependence on foreign energy and stimulate domestic ethanol production which would benefit domestic farmers – with farmers clearly being hurt if if doors for US ethanol and other agriculture products would open. Meanwhile, Trump made clear the US doesn’t want India to replace China as the hub for large-scale manufacturing production, telling iPhone’s Tim Cook to invest in US iPhone manufacturing rather than in India.

So, while India will be very happy to work with the US to counter China – although China’s export curbs on equipment necessary to produce anything from electronics to electric vehicles shows how difficult it actually is to cut out China –, this doesn’t ensure easy dealmaking.

Over to South-East Asia, where countries like Vietnam, Thailand and Indonesia are trying to discuss a deal at the APEC meeting in South Korea this week, where the US trade representative Greer is present and which concludes today. Apart from tariff reductions on US goods, the main issue will be the countries’ gateway for Chinese stuff to be re-exported through the countries to the US. There are multiple ways through which the region is supporting such flows. One is by means of ‘rules-of-origin washing’ at its ports, basically relabelling Chinese manufacturing without adding value. This is illegal, and hardly beneficial to any of the countries involved – though hard to track. Yet another route is through importing Chinese inputs and parts to be used in manufacturing, which is profitably and very difficult if not impossible to eliminate at all.

Recent port data show that imports into the region surged over the past two months, as did exports out of it from some ports in the region, providing Trump with ammunition. As we underscored before, for these countries to secure a deal or not, it will come down very much to how tough the Trump administration’s stance will be.. Vietnam’s Prime Minister stressed this week that the US top priority is countering illegal transshipment, which bodes some hope for an agreement down the line. Although officials have expressed doubt to Reuters if the APEC meeting would actually be able to formulate a joint statement today.

Finally, EU-US talks have been moving really slow so far. EU offers to buy more US LNG and weapons and to lower tariffs on US industrial goods, if the US does the same, have so far been rejected. Talks are arguably moving to the next phase, but we don’t expect anything soon, if at all.

Bessent earlier this week claimed the EU “suffers from a collective action problem”, with different countries wanting different things. Yesterday’s meeting of EU trade ministers confirmed the EU doesn’t want to settle for a deal keeping the 10% universal tariff in place, as is the case for the UK. This seems to be non-negotiable for the US and more sectoral tariffs are in the pipeline. Especially a tariff on pharmaceuticals would be very painful for the EU, as it comprises about 20% of trade with the US.

The EU has circulated a term sheet among its member states with possible offers to be made to the US to come to a deal. Yet at the same time it has created a list with additional US goods to be hit with rebalancing tariffs and export curbs absent a deal. Both the sheet and list are currently up for stakeholder review, which should be concluded in the first half of June. According to Bloomberg, among the offers on the sheet are investment in LNG and AI, EU-US cooperation in sectors like metals, cars, semiconductors, critical minerals and aviation. In general, the EU is still willing to look at tariffs on industrial goods, but agriculture is something really different. Furthermore, it wants to cooperate to tackle Chinese overcapacity and dumping, but doesn’t want to cut China loose. Finally, tax, environment and safety regulations seem non-negotiable. All in all, for the time being, we still expect more tariffs to hit the EU, be it the return of the country-specific add-on and/ or more sector-specific tariffs. If so, the EU will put into force a partial tariff rebalancing package.

In other news we learned yesterday that the UK economy grew by 0.7% q/q in the first quarter of the year, outperforming expectations (0.6% q/q) and peers such as the US and Eurozone. UK growth was driven by increases in gross fixed capital formation, net trade, and household consumption. Net trade contributed 36 basis points to growth, largely due to a rise in manufactured goods exports, which was itself mainly the result of front-loading. However, both private and public spending also edged higher. In terms of output, industrial production grew by 1.1%, while the construction sector showed no growth. The services sector, however, expanded by 0.7% and was the largest contributor to overall output growth.

This confirms that growth is not solely being driven by front-loading. And it suggests businesses and consumers held up well before Labour’s tax rises took effect and Trump’s trade war began to hit confidence. There are signs of underlying resilience in this report, but recent data such as PMIs and labour market surveys since the April tax and trade changes point to a sharp slowdown in Q2.

Very strong Eurozone industrial production figures for March out yesterday were probably also driven by front-loading, but possibly also a reflection of a stabilization in the manufacturing sector after the industrial recession in 2024. More interesting in that respect is the 0.3% q/q gain in Eurozone employment, an acceleration from 0.1% q/q in Q4. Remarkable because it took place against the backdrop of geopolitical and tariff uncertainty and despite that, businesses increased employment. This could point at confidence effects being not as big as feared, or at least a contrast between what businesses fear/think and how they act.

The second reading of the Q1 Eurozone GDP figure of 0.3% q/q was slightly lower than the first estimate of 0.4% q/q, but at first glance still looks solid. Yet while positive that consumption likely contributed positively, the largest driving force seems to have been inventory building, which is expected to turn negative again this quarter. Furthermore, export growth seems to have been weak, despite clear signs of frontloading. Going forward, consumption is likely to continue to support the economy, but trade war related weakness and uncertainty are likely to supress investment growth and export growth – although some frontloading could persist in sectors such as pharmaceuticals. From next year we should see the first material positive GDP impact from more defense spending – with Germany yesterday confirming it will increase military spending to 5% of GDP in the coming years, as Trump requests.

In the US producer prices fell in April by 0.5% m/m, not yet showing the impact of tariffs, which matches earlier CPI figures. Impact will come, though, with for example Walmart saying yesterday that it expects price hikes to become really visible this month. Retail sales by the control group showed weak personal growth in April, but that was also the case in January after which sales turned out ok in Q1 overall. So weakness is visible, but it’s not yet alarming. Finally, initial jobless claims were stable, so nothing shocking to see there by the 10th of May yet.