US Home Prices Hit A New Record High In January… Except In Tampa

After accelerating for the last three months (MoM), S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller data shows home prices rose at a slightly lower pace in January (the latest data released today), up 0.46% MoM (from +0.54% MoM in Dec). This was slightly faster than expected (+0.4% exp) and raised the YoY price gain to +4.67%…

Source: Bloomberg

On a seasonally-adjusted basis, home prices hit yet another record high (as Tampa prices decline)…

Spot the odd one out…

Arguably, (lagged) mortgage rates dipped during that period (positive short-term for the highly smoothed and lagged Case Shiller series), but as is clear, things do not end well…

Source: Bloomberg

However, home price appreciation does seem to track very closely with bank reserves at The Fed (6mo lag), which implies prices are going to re-accelerate once again…

Source: Bloomberg

So 100bps of rate-cuts prompted a re-acceleration in home prices…Well played Fed!!