Key Events This Week: Tariff Talk, Core PCE, Confidence And Global PMIs

It is the last full week before the April 2nd US tariff announcement, so expect lots of headlines on this. Indeed US equity futures are higher this morning on Friday’s Bloomberg story that tariffs will be more targeted than the worst fears. Outside of trade, DB’s Jim Reid notesthat inflation will take centre stage with the all-important US core PCE on Friday. Before that, UK and Australian inflation are out on Wednesday with flash French and Spanish CPI out on Friday, alongside Tokyo CPI.

In terms of other highlights, today’s global flash PMIs will be interesting. US and Europe bounced last month but since then the tariff rhetoric has aggressively stepped-up, but on the other hand Germany has reversed decades of fiscal conservatism. So, it’ll be interesting to see how the surveys respond to those developments.

Other notable US economic indicators due include the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index tomorrow following a slide in the University of Michigan gauges last week (we have the final reading for this on Friday). Talking of confidence tomorrow sees the latest German IFO so we’ll get another chance to see if the fiscal package has changed the outlook or whether the threat of tariffs dominate. The IFO is only decimals off the recent lows which were only weaker at the height of the GFC and briefly at the start of Covid. Wednesday then sees US Durable Goods and the latest Spring statement from the UK with the fiscal finances precariously balanced given the self-imposed fiscal rules. See our economists’ preview here. Thursday will see the final Q4 US GDP print and latest trade data which will both impact Q1 GDP trackers. The trade data may see an import surge ahead of likely increases in tariffs. Also of note will be the latest Congressional Budget Office Federal debt and statutory limit report as well as the long-term budget outlook (all the way to 2055) on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively.

With regards to central banks, highlights include the summary of opinions from the March BoJ meeting on Thursday. In Europe, the ECB will publish its consumer expectations survey on Friday, the same day as Norway’s central bank will decide on rates. In China, highlights include the 1-yr MLF rate fixings tomorrow as well as industrial profits for February on Thursday. Focus will also be on the annual China Development Forum ending today in Beijing. Many CEOs of blue-chip American and European corporates are attending.

The full day-by-day week ahead is at the end as usual but let’s preview the core US PCE on Friday. Personal income (+0.2% vs. +0.9%) and consumption (+0.3% vs. -0.2%) should normalize in opposite directions but the core PCE deflator (+0.37% vs. +0.28%) is likely to edge up and and that should push the YoY rate up a tenth to 2.8%. The recent stronger-than-expected inflation readings have caused DB’s economists to mark up their 2025 inflation forecasts. They now see Q4/Q4 core CPI and core PCE inflation at 3.0% and 2.7%, respectively.

Elsewhere, over the weekend the news flow intensified in Türkiye with key opposition leader, and Istanbul mayor, Ekrem Imamoglu being jailed on corruption charges after being detained by police last week. The fact that he wasn’t charged with terrorism means the news isn’t as extreme as it could have been as such a move would have led to the appointment of a trustee to the Istanbul Municipality, risking more protests and unrest. The Bloomberg TRL equity index fell -17.59% last week and the central bank hiked overnight lending rates by 200bps to 46%. Last night the regulator broadened a short-selling equity ban and relaxed company share buy-back rules to try to help stabilize markets. So one to watch this morning.

Courtesy of DB, here is a day-by-day calendar of events

Monday March 24

• Data: US, UK, Japan, Germany, France and the Eurozone flash March PMIs, US February Chicago Fed national activity index
• Central banks: Fed’s Bostic and Barr speak, BoJ minutes of the January meeting, ECB’s Holzmann speaks, BoE’s Governor Bailey speaks
• Earnings: BYD

Tuesday March 25

• Data: US March Conference Board consumer confidence index, Richmond Fed manufacturing index, business conditions, Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing activity, January FHFA house price index, February new home sales, China 1-yr MLF rate, Japan February PPI services, Germany March Ifo survey, EU27 February new car registrations
• Central banks: Fed’s Williams and Kugler speak, ECB’s Kazimir, Nagel, Holzmann and Vujcic speak
• Auctions: US 2-yr Notes ($69bn)

Wednesday March 26

• Data: US February durable goods orders, UK February CPI, RPI, January house price index, France March consumer confidence, Australia February CPI
• Central banks: Fed’s Musalem and Kashkari speak, ECB’s Villeroy and Cipollone speak, BoC summary of deliberations from the March meeting
• Earnings: Dollar Tree, RENK
• Auctions: US 2-yr FRN (reopening, $28bn), US 5-yr Notes ($70bn)
• Other: US CBO Federal Debt and the Statutory Limit report, UK spring statement

Thursday March 27

• Data: US February pending home sales, advance goods trade balance, wholesale inventories, March Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity, initial jobless claims, China February industrial profits, Japan March Tokyo CPI, Eurozone February M3
• Central banks: Fed’s Barkin speaks, BoJ’s summary of opinions from the March meeting, ECB’s Guindos, Villeroy, Wunsch, Escriva and Schnabel speak, BoE’s Dhingra speaks, Norges Bank decision
• Earnings: H&M, Lululemon
• Auctions: US 7-yr Notes ($44bn)
• Other: US CBO The Long-Term Budget Outlook: 2025 to 2055

Friday March 28

• Data: US February PCE, personal income, personal spending, March Kansas City Fed services activity, UK February retail sales, January trade balance, Q4 current account balance, Germany April GfK consumer confidence, March unemployment claims rate, France March CPI, PPI, February consumer spending, Italy March consumer confidence index, manufacturing confidence, economic sentiment, January industrial sales, February PPI, Eurozone March economic confidence, Canada January GDP
• Central banks: Fed’s Barr and Bostic speak, ECB February consumer expectations survey

Finally, looking at just the US, the key economic data releases this week are core PCE inflation and the University of Michigan report on Friday. There are several speaking engagements by Fed officials this week, including an event with Governor Barr on Monday.

Monday, March 24

• 09:45 AM S&P Global US manufacturing PMI, March preliminary (consensus 51.8, last 52.7); S&P Global US services PMI, March preliminary (consensus 51.2, last 51.0)
• 01:45 PM Atlanta Fed President Bostic (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic will be interviewed on Bloomberg Television.
• 03:10 PM Fed Governor Barr speaks: Fed Governor Michael Barr will speak in a moderated discussion at an event hosted by the Aspen Institute.

Tuesday, March 25

• 09:00 AM S&P Case-Shiller 20-city home price index, January (GS +0.6%, consensus +0.4%, +0.5%)
• 09:00 AM FHFA house price index, January (consensus +0.3%, last +0.4%)
• 09:05 AM New York Fed President Williams (FOMC voter) speaks: New York Fed President John Williams will give opening remarks at a conference at the New York Fed. Speech text is expected. On March 4, Williams said, „I think the current stance of policy is good. I don’t see any need to change it right away.” He also said, „The US economy is starting in a very good place—unemployment is at 4%, the labor market has stabilized, inflation is 2.5% and has been coming down gradually toward our 2% goal—and we have monetary policy in a very good place.”
• 10:00 AM New home sales, February (GS +2.2%, consensus +3.5%, last -10.5%)
• 10:00 AM Conference Board consumer confidence, March (GS 93.0, consensus 93.6, last 98.3)

Wednesday, March 26

• 08:30 AM Durable goods orders, February preliminary (GS -2.0%, consensus -1.0%, last +3.2%); Durable goods orders ex-transportation, February preliminary (GS -0.2%, consensus +0.2%, last flat); Core capital goods orders, February preliminary (GS -0.2%, consensus flat, last +0.8%); Core capital goods shipments, February preliminary (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.2%, last -0.3%): We estimate that durable goods orders declined 2.0% in the preliminary February report (month-over-month, seasonally adjusted), reflecting a decline in commercial aircraft orders. We forecast a 0.2% decline in core capital goods orders—reflecting sharp declines in the new orders components of manufacturing surveys in February—and a 0.4% increase in core capital goods shipments—reflecting the rise in core orders in recent months.
• 10:00 AM Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari will host a Fed Listens event in Detroit Lakes, Michigan. Q&A is expected.
• 01:10 PM St. Louis Fed President Musalem (FOMC voter) speaks: St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem will speak on the US economy and monetary policy, followed by a moderated conversation. Speech text is expected. On March 3, Musalem said, „I believe a patient approach now will help us as we seek maximum employment, price stability and a durable economic expansion.”

Thursday, March 27

• 08:30 AM GDP, Q4 third release (GS +2.3%, consensus +2.4%, last +2.3%); Personal consumption, Q4 third release (GS +4.2%, consensus +4.2%, last +3.7%); Core PCE inflation, Q4 third release (GS +2.65%, consensus +2.7%, last +2.7%): We estimate no revision on net to Q4 GDP growth at +2.3% (quarter-over-quarter annualized), reflecting downward revisions to business and residential fixed investment offset by an upward revision to exports growth.
• 08:30 AM Advance goods trade balance, February (GS -$140.0bn, consensus -$134.5bn, last -$155.6bn): We estimate that goods trade deficit narrowed by $15.6bn to $140.0bn in the February advance report, reflecting a $10bn decline in gold imports and an $8bn increase in total imports from major Asian trading partners.
• 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended March 22 (GS 220k, consensus 225k, last 223k): Continuing jobless claims, week ended March 15 (consensus 1,879k, last 1,892k)
• 10:00 AM Wholesale inventories, February preliminary (consensus +1.0%, last +0.8%)
• 10:00 AM Pending home sales, February (GS -2.0%, consensus +1.0%, last -4.6%)
• 04:30 PM Richmond Fed President Barkin (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin will give a lecture at Washington and Lee University. Speech text and Q&A are expected. On February 25, Barkin said „All this uncertainty argues for caution as we look to wrap up the inflation fight. If headwinds persist, we may well need to use policy to lean against that wind.”

Friday, March 28

• 08:30 AM Personal income, February (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.4%, last +0.9%); Personal spending, February (GS +0.5%, consensus +0.5%, last -0.2%); Core PCE price index, February (GS +0.34%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.2%); Core PCE price index (YoY), February (GS +2.75%, consensus +2.7%, last +2.6%); PCE price index, February (GS +0.30%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.3%); PCE price index (YoY), February (GS +2.50%, consensus +2.5%, last +2.5%): We estimate that personal income and personal spending increased by 0.3% and 0.5%, respectively, in February. We estimate that the core PCE price index rose by 0.34% in February, corresponding to a year-over-year rate of 2.75%. Additionally, we expect that the headline PCE price index increased by 0.3% from the prior month, corresponding to a year-over-year rate of 2.50%. Our forecast is consistent with a 0.20% increase in our trimmed core PCE measure (vs. 0.18% in January).
• 10:00 AM University of Michigan consumer sentiment, March preliminary (GS 57.9, consensus 57.9, last 57.9): University of Michigan 5-10-year inflation expectations, March preliminary (GS 3.8%, last 3.9%)
• 03:30 PM Atlanta Fed President Bostic (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic will moderate a panel on US housing finance policy at an event at the Atlanta Fed.

Source: DB, Goldman