Goldman предупреждает, что бум центров обработки данных может обернуться долгосрочным риском перенасыщения рынка

In a note to clients earlier this week, Goldman analyst Vinay Viswanathan provided an update on the U.S. data center securitization market for their clients. He noted that the market, driven by massive investments in facilities equipped with thousands of GPUs that power large language models, is on track to hit a record this year. However, the analysts cautioned that they remain „cautious about the long-term supply/demand balance” despite the „near-term green shoots for the data center sector.”

Viswanathan noted that solid „near-term market momentum” in the securitization market for data center assets because of three main factors:

• Cloud Capex Surge: Major hyperscalers (AWS, Microsoft, Google, Meta, Oracle) increased capital expenditure guidance in Q1 2025, signaling strong forward demand for AI cloud services.

• Tight Supply: Primary North American data center vacancy hit a record low (1.9% in late 2024), with 72% of new capacity already pre-leased.

• Policy Support: The Trump administration’s Stargate initiative signals generative AI infrastructure as a federal priority, further encouraging private sector investment.

„Securitization has emerged as a stable and scalable source of financing for the capital-intensive digital infrastructure sector,” the analyst said. He mentioned that the size of the data center securitization market has exploded from just $5 billion to $30 billion across ABS (asset-backed securities) and CMBS (commercial mortgage-backed securities) structures.

At the start of the year, growth in the securitization market for data centers stalled because of concerns about data center demand in relation to improved AI efficiency (recall the 'Deep Seek’ moment) and the buildup of tariff uncertainty.

However, pricing and issuance have rebounded sharply, putting data center securitizations back on track to reach new highs by year-end, potentially.

A pipeline of aggressive buildouts by hyperscalers.

With the supply pipeline accelerating because of mega-projects like Stargate, Viswanathan warned:

Despite the near-term green shoots for the data center sector, we remain cautious about the long-term supply/demand balance. Our equity research colleagues expect the data center market to reach peak occupancy by the middle of next year, before gradually loosening over the coming years.

Two key drivers justify Viswanathan’s view:

• First, the growing pipeline of planned data centers will result in steadily higher completions, with the Stargate project poised to push future supply even higher.

• Second, this level of supply growth will put a high bar for AI workload demand growth to keep occupancy flat beyond the next two years.

The analyst added:

If the second derivative of AI demand turned negative, this could weigh on rent growth and lease renewal rates. This would be particularly damaging for the re-leasing success of highly customized, build-to-suit data center assets, which naturally have elevated obsolescence risk.

What’s clear is that green shoots have emerged, and the AI infrastructure buildout is now fully underway, likely to continue for years.

According to UBS analyst Steven Fisher, the structural tailwinds driving this data center expansion are expected to begin materially filtering into the real economy by the second quarter of 2026.

As Viswanathan puts it, the data center boom won’t last forever. Sooner or later, the pendulum will swing from scarcity to surplus—and that’s when the party ends. Until then, keep partying. Just don’t forget: every party ends.