Фьючерсы растут на фоне оптимизма относительно торговой сделки, золото бьет очередной рекорд

US equity futures are higher, attempting to pare back some of the sharp losses from Monday’s prior session and extending yesterday’s late day buying where the S&P found support at the 5,100 level; according to JPM, there is some optimism around a trade deal with either Japan or India and a deal is a likely milestone for stocks to finally bottom. As of 8:00am ET, S&P and Nasdaq futures are are up 0.8%, off session highs of 1.3%, with Mag 7 and Semis all higher with TSLA earnings after the close. This week 25% of the S&P reports with implied vols among the highest since peak-COVID. Chinese tech names are reportedly considering US listings despite „market ructions”, via Bloomberg citing sources; Walnut Coding, CloudSky, Zaihui & Zhonghe said to be considering IPOs in the US. The yield curve is twisting flatter and USD seeing a bid following 4 days of losses. The commodity space is mostly higher led by Energy but gold remains the top story as it set a new ATH rising above $3500 before easing back. The macro data focus is on regional Fed activity indicators (Philly non-mfg and Richmond Fed at 8:30am/10:00am ET), but the more impactful data is tomorrow’s Flash PMI prints. We also get a slew of Fed speakers (see below) alongside numerous heavyweight earnings including Tesla.

In premarket trading, Magnificent 7 stocks are rising (Tesla +0.7%, Alphabet +0.7%, Nvidia +0.92%, Amazon +0.99%, Apple +0.82%, Microsoft +0.7%, Meta +0.6%). Solar stocks gain after the US set new duties as high as 3,521% on solar imports from four Southeast Asian countries (First Solar +5.8%, Sunnova Energy +1.2%, SolarEdge Technologies +3%, Array Technologies +1.9%, Enphase Energy +2.3%). 3M (MMM) climbs 3% after the company stood by its full-year financial guidance while acknowledging new risks from the unfolding trade war. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

• Appian (APPN) rises 2% after hiring Srdjan Tanjga as CFO. Tanjga is leaving MongoDB to take the job.
• Calix (CALX) soars 14% after the computer services company reported quarterly results that beat expectations and provided an outlook that is above the analyst consensus estimate.
• CoreWeave (CRWV) rises 2% as Jefferies and Barclays initiate the software company at overweight, citing AI compute reliability and first mover advantage.
• Danaher (DHR) climbs 3% after the life-sciences firm reported quarterly profit that beat estimates.
• Halliburton (HAL) falls 4% after the energy and engineering services company reported adjusted earnings per share and revenue for the first quarter that fell year over year.
• Kimberly-Clark (KMB) slips 2% after the consumer-products company reported quarterly organic sales that disappointed and said the company faces about $300 million in incremental costs in 2025 due to tariffs.
• Northrop Grumman (NOC) falls 8% after the defense contractor cut its adjusted earnings per share guidance for the full year.
• StoneCo (STNE) rises 3% as Citi upgrades the the fintech to buy on its progress toward becoming a small bank from a payment firm.
• Synchrony Financial (SYF) rises 3% after the financial services firm reaffirmed its net revenue forecast for the full year.
• Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ) declines 3% after posting a larger-than-expected decline in mobile-phone subscribers in the first quarter, the result of heavy competition and less spending by government agencies.
• Zions Bancorp (ZION) falls 3.8% after first-quarter earnings missed the average analyst estimate. Analysts note that current economic uncertainty is weighing on the company’s outlook.

While S&P futures have managed a rebound contracts added 0.9%, the conversation on Wall Street still focuses on the implications of any White House effort to replace Powell. Concerns that Trump may be preparing to fire Powell have added to unease for traders already grappling with the turmoil unleashed by the president’s tariff onslaught. Trump’s policies and his broadsides against the Fed have forced a reappraisal of the dollar and Treasuries as havens in times of stress, although the collapse in the dollar has been as large as when the Fed launched QE, so if Powell will not ease, Trump will get his hit to the dollar using other means.

“With increasing rhetoric from the administration admonishing the Fed to cut rates and the markets entertaining intensifying discussions about the possibility of replacing the Fed chair, we don’t expect a rush back into the market from abroad,” John Velis, a strategist at Bank of New York Mellon, said of US bonds. “The haven status of such assets is increasingly in question.”

Attention later Tuesday will shift to Tesla, which reports first-quarter earnings after the market close; its stock has dropped about 44% this year as the massive post-eleciton rally has fully unwound. Elon Musk’s role in the federal government has contributed to a global sales slump.

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 index dropped as traders returned from the Easter break. Novo Nordisk A/S slumped almost 10% on concern it faces tougher competition from Eli Lilly & Co.’s experimental weight loss pill. Here are the biggest movers Tuesday:

• Precious metals and mining stocks advance as concerns over the US economy and President Donald Trump’s criticism of the Federal Reserve sent gold to a record above $3,500 an ounce
• L’Oreal shares gain as much as 2.6% after the cosmetics maker’s like for like sales growth exceeded expectations. Analysts pointed to a strong performance in the beauty company’s Chinese market
• Pernod Ricard shares rise as much as 3% after being upgraded by Barclays, with analysts arguing risk is skewing to the upside, particularly in the company’s key Chinese growth market
• OVH Groupe shares rise as much as 11%, hitting their highest in over two years, after being upgraded by analysts at Stifel, who argue the cloud computing company is facing no clear headwinds
• Biotage gains as much as 58% after private equity firm KKRa made a take-private offer for Swedish life sciences group for 11.6 billion kronor ($1.2 billion), a 60% premium versus last week’s close
• Novo Nordisk shares fall as much as 9.8% in their first day of trading since Wednesday after the release of strong data from a rival obesity pill developed by US peer Eli Lilly
• Orsted falls as much as 9.6% after being downgraded to underperform at Bank of America. The broker cites a surge in US regulatory uncertainty facing the Danish wind energy firm’s offshore projects
• Equinor shares fall as much as 3.1% after RBC downgraded shares to underperform from sector perform, and the Norwegian energy group halted the construction of its US offshore wind farm Empire Wind
• DCC shares drop as much as 1.5%, giving up initial gains, after agreeing to sell its healthcare division to funds advised by Investindustrial Advisors at an enterprise value of £1.05 billion
• Aryzta drops as much as 4.9% on Tuesday, snapping a run of six straight daily gains that had last week driven the stock to its highest since Oct. 2018, after reporting first-quarter results

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks were steady as traders await outcomes of US tariff negotiations with key trading partners, while fresh concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve also kept a lid on sentiment. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index swung in a narrow range. Taiwan’s benchmark fell more than 1% while Indonesia and Singapore led gainers. Key gauges in Hong Kong climbed, while Australia’s was little changed as trading resumed following a four-day weekend. Asian stocks overall have held up well relative to big losses in New York, with market watchers increasingly discussing the waning dominance of the US exceptionalism trade.

In currencies, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is little changed. The yen is the best performing G-10 currency, rising 0.3% against the greenback although couldn’t sustain an earlier break past 140. “Market volatility though is driving some haven flow into the yen,” said Shoki Omori, chief desk strategist at Mizuho Securities Co. in Tokyo. “Reports the BOJ sees little need to change their stance on rate hikes are also aiding sentiment in the currency, while denting the dollar.”

In rates, treasuries are mixed with underperformance seen in shorter-dated maturities, pushing US two-year yields up 3 bps to 3.79% while long-dated tenors have plied narrow ranges, flattening 2s10s curve by nearly 4bp, 5s30s by more than 2bp. German yields fall across the curve with two-year borrowing costs touching the lowest since 2022. The gilt curve steepens with 2s10s widening nearly 5bps. The Treasury auction cycle begins with $69 billion 2-year at 1pm New York time and includes $70 billion 5-year and $44 billion 7-year sales Wednesday and Thursday. WI 2-year yield near 3.78% is about 11bp richer than March auction, which stopped through by 0.3bp.

In commodities, oil prices advanced, with WTI climbing 1.4% to $64 a barrel. Bitcoin rises 1.3% and above $88,000. Spot gold earlier hit $3,500 for the first time before paring gains to around $3,460.

Looking at today’s calendar, we get the April Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing activity (8:30am) and Richmond Fed manufacturing index (10am). Fed speaker slate includes Jefferson (9am), Harker (9:30am), Kashkari (1:40pm), Barkin (2:30pm) and Kugler (6pm)

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini +1%
• Nasdaq 100 mini +1%
• Russell 2000 mini +1%
• Stoxx Europe 600 -0.3%
• DAX -0.2%
• CAC 40 -0.4%
• 10-year Treasury yield +1 basis point at 4.42%
• VIX -1.7 points at 32.17
• Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1216.69
• euro -0.1% at $1.1498
• WTI crude +1.5% at $64.05/barrel
• Top Overnight News
• The Trump administration intends to press India to give online retailers such as Amazon and Walmart full access to its $125bn ecommerce market, as part of a trade deal being negotiated under the threat of increased tariffs. FT
• Talks between the US and Thailand over the Trump administration’s tariff plans were postponed after Washington asked the Southeast Asian nation to address “issues” related to trade, officials said. BBG
• WSJ’s Timiraos writes „Trump Is Laying the Groundwork to Blame Powell for Any Downturn” and is signalling he will blame the Fed for any economic weakness resulting from his trade war if it doesn’t cut rates soon.
• US Securities and Exchange Commission announced Paul Atkins was sworn in as chairman
• Senior House Republican, Frank Lucas, defends Powell and Fed independence amid Trump attacks. Axios
• Chinese trade held up in April despite Trump’s tariffs, data showed, as Trump spared many electronics and paused levies against most countries. BBG
• China’s curbs on shipments of critical metals to the US are already having a visible effect, with exports of the minerals plunging and shipments of several critical items halting entirely in March, customs data shows. SCMP
• A Japanese delegation will deliver a letter from PM Shigeru Ishiba to Xi Jinping this week, as Tokyo strives to avoid China-US crossfire. BBG
• When Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato meets his U.S. counterpart Scott Bessent in Washington this week, the yen is shaping up to be a major topic of discussion, though sources say Tokyo will push back against any request to boost its currency. RTRS
• The BOE’s Megan Greene said US tariffs may be more of an disinflationary risk to the UK than inflationary. BBG
• India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi and U.S. Vice President JD Vance on Monday hailed the “significant” progress made in trade talks between the two sides during Vance’s visit to India. CNBC

Tariffs/Trade

• US Commerce Department finalized dumping duties ranging from 6.1% to 271.28% on solar cells imported from Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam.
• US Trade Representative’s statement confirmed that USTR Greer and India’s Ministry of Commerce and Industry have finalised terms of reference to lay down a roadmap for negotiations on reciprocal trade and stated that India’s constructive engagement so far has been welcomed.
• South Korea’s Acting President Han said he expects South Korea-US trade talks this week to pave the way towards a mutually beneficial solution.
• Reuters reports that „Japan sees little scope for grand deal on yen in talks with US” at this week’s Washington meeting of Finance Ministers. Sources report that Japan will push back against any request to boost its currency. Japan reportedly sees little scope for direct action i.e. FX intervention or an immediate BoJ hike, via Reuters citing sources. The meeting is likely to focus, from a Japanese perspective, on getting further insight into Washington’s intentions.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newquawk

APAC stocks traded mixed with most indices rangebound despite the sell-off on Wall St where stocks and the dollar were pressured after President Trump renewed his criticism against Fed Chair Powell. ASX 200 was little changed as strength in mining stocks and gold producers were offset by losses in tech, energy and healthcare, while price action was also hampered by the absence of any key data. Nikkei 225 struggled for direction and swung between gains and losses in relatively contained parameters amid a choppy currency and slightly higher Japanese yields. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the mixed picture with the Hong Kong benchmark marginally pressured on return from the Easter weekend, while the mainland was kept afloat amid earnings and positive EV-related updates.

Top Asian News

• Japanese Finance Minister Kato said finance authorities are to ask banks to help support financing at small companies affected by US tariffs, while he is arranging to hold a meeting with US Treasury Secretary Bessent and plans to discuss forex issues.
• Japan Keidanren Business Federation Chief Tokura says wants FX to stabilise as much as possible; rapid FX fluctuations are not desirable for the economy, in response to a question on USD/JPY moving below 140.00.

European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.6%) opened mostly and modestly lower and have traded sideways throughout the morning thus far. Sentiment in Europe today is fairly gloomy, playing catch-up to the hefty losses seen in the US on Monday (reminder: Europe was shut on account of Easter Monday). European sectors hold a negative bias, in-fitting with the risk tone. Real Estate takes the top spot, benefiting from the relatively lower yield environment (in Europe). Insurance follows closely behind, with both Helvetia and Baloise jumping around 4% after the pair announced a merger of equals to form a leading European insurance group. Healthcare has been weighed on today by significant pressure in Novo Nordisk (-8%), hit as traders digest the latest obesity-pill updates from rival Eli Lilly.

Top European News

• BoE’s Greene says market pricing for BoE rate cuts has been moving around a lot but not all of it is to do with the UK. Aware of rise in inflation expectations, but risks are to both sides. US tariffs represent more of a disinflationary risk than an inflationary one for the UK. Wage growth remains „pretty high”, the labour force survey has been volatile and has its own collection issues.
• ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters; 2025 and 2026 inflation forecasts raised, growth lowered.
• German government lowers growth forecasts to 0.0% for 2025 and ~1% for 2026 (Including the US base tariff of ten percent as well as on steel, aluminium and cars), according to Handelsblatt’s Olk.

FX

• DXY is flat with the USD showing a differing performance vs. peers (stronger vs. EUR and CHF, weaker vs. JPY). Monday was a notable down day for the USD after another outburst from US President Trump, attempting to strong arm Fed Chair Powell into lowering rates and speculation over whether he will attempt to remove him before his term expires next year. Today’s calendar is lacking in US data but heavy in speakers with Fed’s Jefferson, Harker, Kashkari, Kugler & Barkin all due on deck.
• EUR/USD is a touch lower but holding above 1.15 after early USD buying knocked the pair from its overnight peak at 1.1547. This comes after the pair hit a multi-year high on Monday at 1.1574. On the trade front, there has been little in the way of updates since last week’s reporting that the EU expects tariffs to remain given a lack of progress in trade discussions. As it stands, despite today’s reprieve for the USD, the EUR still remains a liquid alternative to the USD should investors continue to shun US assets.
• JPY is top of the G10 leaderboard as the currency continues to benefit from its safe-haven appeal with USD/JPY briefly slipping below the 140 mark earlier in the session for the first time since September 2024. JPY is also underpinned by hopes over upcoming talks between the US and Japanese administrations. That being said, a Reuters sources piece noted that Japan will push back against any request to boost its currency. This prompted a slight pick up in USD/JPY after failing to sustain a move below 140. From a policy perspective in Japan, source reporting suggests that the BoJ is likely to keep its rate-hike signal intact at its meeting next week despite Trump tariff risks.
• GBP is flat vs. the USD with UK-specific newsflow on the light side. In an interview on Bloomberg TV, MPC member Greene remarked that the main issue from the trade war is whether the main impact will be on demand or the supply side; whether the main factors will be on demand or the supply side. Greene added that wage growth remains „pretty high”, however, the labour force survey has been volatile and has its own collection issues. BoE’s Breeden is due later in the day.
• Antipodeans are both now steady vs. the USD after initially kicking the session off on the front foot. Upside was trimmed alongside a pick up in the USD in quiet newsflow. Overnight, AUD/USD hit a fresh YTD peak at 0.6439 before returning back to within Monday’s 0.6369-0.6437 range.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.2074 vs exp. 7.2925 (Prev. 7.2055).

Fixed Income

• USTs are still digesting the remarks from Trump on Fed Chair Powell and interest rates. Commentary which sparked marked steepening on Monday as short-end yields were weighed on by the prospect of cuts while the long-end picked up on the prospect of this sparking more inflation down the line. As it stands, the curve is unwinding that action a little and is slightly flatter today but still in close proximity to the steepest points seen on Monday i.e. 2s10s around 63bps vs Monday’s 55-66bps range. USTs are softer on the session, at the low-end of a 110-18 to 110-27+ band. A 2-year auction is due later, with focus also on a slew of Fed speakers.
• Modest two-way action in Bunds today, with catalysts light thus far. No reaction to the latest ECB SPF that featured an increase to the inflation and cut to the growth views of respondents; a point which may well be reflected in the IMF forecasts this afternoon. Holding at the top-end of a 131.46-83 band on return from the long weekend and while Bunds are outperforming USTs, it is only modest with the German benchmark essentially unchanged. Ahead, a 2027 Schatz auction with appearances from ECB’s Lagarde and Knot also scheduled.
• Gilts opened lower by just under 30 ticks before paring essentially all of the move to print a 92.40 high, just five ticks shy of Friday’s close. However, this proved short lived with the benchmark coming under gradual but notable pressure and entered the appearance from BoE’s Greene at a 92.02 base. Greene highlighted two-way risks to inflation being present though some modest pressure in Gilts, to a 91.96 trough, came as she highlighted wage growth remains “pretty high” and she is keeping an eye on the rise in inflation expectations.

Crude

• Crude futures extend on the rebound from the prior day’s trough despite the European rebound in the Dollar and overall quiet news flow thus far. Desks pin the recent losses in the complex to US tariff uncertainty, risk aversion from Trump pressuring the Fed Chair, and telegraphed progress regarding US-Iran nuclear talks. WTI resides in a USD 62.72-63.43/bbl range with its Brent counterpart in a USD 66.54-67.25/bbl parameter.
• Spot gold extended on its rally and printed a fresh record high at USD 3,500/oz at the time of writing, with gains in the yellow metal facilitated by the recent fall in the Dollar coupled with ongoing uncertainty on the US tariff policy and geopolitics. Add to that, the issue of US central bank independence after US President Trump upped the pressure on Fed Chair Powell to ease monetary policy. Spot gold currently resides in a USD 3,3412.34-3,500.20/oz range.
• Mostly firmer trade across base metals amid the recent fall in the Dollar and resilience in the red metal’s largest buyer. 3M LME copper resides in a USD 9,254.03-9,333.05/t.

Geopolitics

• Kremlin spokesman Peskov said Russian President Putin’s comments on Monday that it was possible to discuss the issue of not striking the civilian targets, including bilaterally, he had negotiations and discussions with the Ukrainian side in mind.
• Iranian Foreign Minister will visit China on April 23rd, according to the Chinese Foreign Ministry.

US Event Calendar

• 10:00 am: Apr Richmond Fed Manufact. Index, est. -6.5, prior -4

Central Bankers

• 9:00 am: Fed’s Jefferson Speaks at Economic Mobility Summit
• 9:30 am: Fed’s Harker Speaks at Economic Mobility Summit
• 1:40 pm: Fed’s Kashkari Speaks in Moderated Discussion
• 2:30 pm: Fed’s Barkin Speaks in Fireside Chat
• 6:00 pm: Fed’s Kugler Speaks on Monetary Policy Transmission

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Welcome back to all those in Europe that enjoyed the long Easter weekend. While most European markets were closed on Monday, the main market theme has been renewed pressure across US assets, with the S&P 500 falling -2.36%, 30yr Treasury yields rising +10.4bps to 4.90% and the dollar falling to a new 3-year low, while gold extended its YTD gain to over +30%.

The broad sell-off was triggered by rising concerns over Fed independence as President Trump became increasingly critical of Fed Chair Powell. The White House rhetoric had initially escalated after Powell’s hawkish-leaning speech that exacerbated the market sell-off last Wednesday. But while markets digested President Trump’s initial post that “Powell’s termination cannot come fast enough” last Thursday relatively well, ongoing criticism saw renewed pressure on US assets on Monday. In a post yesterday President Trump suggested it was time for “preemptive cuts”, claiming that “there is virtually No Inflation” and that the economy risks slowing unless Powell, whom President Trump referred to as “Mr. Too Late”, lowers interest rates. This post followed the National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett saying on Friday that the Trump team was studying whether he could remove Powell.

While potential risks to Fed independence had already generated headlines in recent weeks, yesterday’s market moves were the clearest sign yet of investor anxiety over the topic. Powell, whose term as Chair expires in May 2026, reiterated last week that the Fed’s independence “is a matter of law,” and that “we’re not removable except for cause.” Other Fed officials have also warned against curtailing the central bank’s independence, including Chicago Fed President Goolsbee yesterday. Note that while the Fed Chair has significant influence over the FOMC, monetary policy actions are taken by a majority vote so removing Powell could lead to increased pushback from other members against pressure on the Fed to deliver easier policy. And with the latest rise in yields being driven mostly by real rates rather than breakevens, the market reaction is arguably more about broader investor concerns that less credible US policy-making may erode the exorbitant privilege that has allowed the US to run high twin deficits than it is about the specific risk of political influence over the Fed’s rates policy.

Tariffs also stayed in the headlines, with President Trump commenting yesterday that “Tariffs are going well, everybody wants to negotiate”, but with there being little definitive progress. Some positive headlines came out of US Vice President Vance’s visit to India, with the White House touting “significant progress in the negotiations”. Over in Japan, Prime Minister Ishiba said “If Japan concedes everything, we won’t be able to secure our national interest” ahead of an expected second round of talks with the US. Mexico’s President Sheinbaum said there was no agreement yet with the US, with talks ongoing ahead of a May 3 deadline for tariffs on auto parts. And earlier on Monday, China’s Ministry of Commerce warned other countries in talks with the US against “reaching a deal at the expense of China’s interests”, with no signs so far of a substantial engagement between the US and China.

This backdrop saw the S&P 500 (-2.36%) post a broad-based decline on Monday with all 24 of its industry groups lower on the day and the equal-weighted version of the index down by -2.04%. Cyclical stocks underperformed, with the Mag-7 down -3.23% led by a -5.75% decline for Tesla ahead of its earnings release this evening. And a -2.55% decline for the NASDAQ saw it move back into bear market territory, with the index down -21% from its recent peak. The VIX volatility index rose +4.17pts to 33.82 and other risk assets also struggled, with US HY credit spreads +14bps wider at 412bps.
In a pattern of bonds being an increasingly poor hedge for equities, long-term Treasuries saw a renewed sell-off. 10yr yields moved +8.6bps higher to 4.41% and 30yr yields rose +10.4bps to 4.90%, their highest since January. This rise was driven by real yields, with the 10yr real yield up +9.4bps to 2.18%. By contrast, 2yr yields fell -3.5bps to 3.765% as the amount of Fed rate cuts priced by December rose +6.1bps to 93bps. These moves translated into a sharp steepening of the yield curve, with the 2s10s and 2s30s slopes reaching their steepest levels since January 2022, shortly before the Fed started its post-Covid hiking cycle.

In FX, the dollar index (-0.96%) yesterday closed at its lowest level in over three years. The dollar index is now down -5.69% since the start of April and on course for its weakest month since 2009. The dollar lost ground against all G10 currencies on Monday, with the euro rising to 1.1515, its highest level since November 2021, while the Swiss franc (+1.08%) was the strongest performing G10 currency. The flight to perceived safe havens also saw gold (+2.92%) post its 22nd all-time high since the start of the year, extending its YTD advance to +30.46%. Overnight, gold prices edged up another +0.81% higher to $3,452/oz.

In the energy space, the risk-off mood, concerns about the US-China trade war and constructive weekend headlines on indirect US-Iran talks put new downward pressure on oil prices. Brent crude fell -2.50% to $66.26/bbl, reversing about half of its +4.94% rise last week.

Asian equity markets are struggling to gain traction this morning after yesterday’s meltdown on Wall Street. In Japan, the Nikkei (-0.35%) is slightly lower after falling by -1.30% on Monday. In China, the Hang Seng (-0.03%) and the CSI (+0.03%) are little changed, while the Shanghai Composite (+0.31%) and Korea’s KOSPI (+0.15%) are seeing minor gains reversing initial losses. Outside of Asia, US equity futures are seeing a modest recovery, with those on the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ around +0.35% higher. 10yr Treasury yields (+0.5bps) are marginally higher following yesterday’s sell-off, with the dollar (-0.15%) again moving lower overnight. In Europe, STOXX 50 futures are trading -0.47% lower this morning after Monday’s holiday, which follows rebounds of +3.09% for the STOXX 50 and +4.03% for the STOXX 600 last week.

Over in Asia, our strategists published an insightful report yesterday laying out the case for a stronger RMB. They see the risk-reward weighted to a move lower in USD/CNH over the summer months, with the cost-benefit analysis for China’s policy not favouring a weaponization of the RMB.

Looking forward to the rest of this week, the data highlight will be the April flash PMIs on Wednesday, with the impact of US tariffs in focus. European manufacturing PMIs have been recovering in recent months but remain in contractionary territory, while in the US the index was only slightly above 50 (50.2) last month. Investors will also be watching the PMIs for evidence of supply disruptions and price pressures from tariffs, with US manufacturing PMI price indices having risen to 2-year highs in March.

Other notable economic indicators out this week include March durable goods orders and housing market data in the US. Our US economists see durable goods orders (Thursday) growth at +1.0% MoM (+1.0% in February), pointing to a strong start to the year for capex prior to the major tariff announcements. The Fed will also release its Beige Book on Wednesday. In Europe, other sentiment releases include the Ifo survey in Germany (Thursday) as well as consumer confidence indicators in the UK (Friday), Eurozone (Tuesday) and France (Thursday).

Elsewhere, global policy-makers are gathering in Washington for the IMF/World Bank spring meetings. As part of that, the IMF will be releasing its latest economic forecasts later today, and G20 finance ministers and central bank governors will also be meeting on Wednesday and Thursday. And there will be plenty of Fedspeak, including Jefferson, Harker, Kashkari, Barkin and Kugler today.

We will also be entering the peak of the earnings season. Two of the Mag-7 will be reporting with Tesla after market close today and Alphabet on Thursday, while other tech reports include Intel, IBM and ServiceNow. Results from consumer groups including P&G and PepsiCo may get extra attention given the recent softening in US consumer sentiment, while in Europe names to watch include SAP and Dassault Systemes. See the full weekly calendar below.