What’s Behind Chicago’s Welcome, But Belated, Drop In Crime?

Authored by Ted Dabrowski and John Klingner via Wirepoints.org,

Mayor Brandon Johnson is celebrating a drop in crime in Chicago. Murders are down 22% in 2025 over the same period last year, and so is overall violent crime. The drop can’t be ignored.

But can Johnson credibly make the claim that his “investments” in people is the reason why? Success, as usual, has many parents, but proving causation is a different matter. Different people are attributing Chicago’s crime drop to different things, including higher numbers in Chicago jails, a new states attorney who replaced the notorious Kim Foxx and more cops on the street. And it’s important to note that Chicago is not alone. There’s been a massive drop in violent crime nationwide and, broadly speaking, the permissive national attitude toward crime has faded.

The country experienced a historic spike in murders in 2020, the largest increase on record, and the violence spike was equally massive. In hindsight, it’s not surprising to see the numbers across the country drop in a big way, and Chicago’s too, even if belatedly. Chicago’s violence numbers are now far better and we’re finally getting back to pre-covid levels.

The bad news is, other cities across the country got there far faster and with far less bloodshed. Chicago has lagged the rest of the country.

Chicago lagged in 2024

It was just one year ago that Wirepoints reported on the continued rise in violent crime in 2024 even as violence was dropping sharply nationwide. In May of last year, we released the below chart, compiled from the Mayor’s Chicago Violence Reduction Dashboard, that showed violent crime, year-to-date through May 2024, had reached a six-year high. Chicago was getting worse even as statistics nationwide were moving in the opposite direction.

But the second half of the year fared much better for Chicago, and by the end of 2024, the city finally had a year-on-year drop in violent crime. 2024 violent crime was down 7% off of the 2023 highs.

Chicago murders also continued to fare much better and drop from their highs in 2021.

But Chicago’s 2024 decline in homicides still lagged most of the country. Murders fell 8%, but that was small compared to cities like Jacksonville where murder was down 48%. Other cities like New Orleans, Philly, Washington D.C. and Memphis all had drops greater than 30%. Yet others had 20%-plus drops.

Other cities were back to 2019 levels of crime

Crime numbers were undeniably better for Chicago in 2024. The problem, though, was that across much of the country, as recently shown in a Council on Criminal Justice report, 2024 violent crime was already lower than in 2019. Not so in Chicago.

For the 40 major cities studied by CCJ, 2024 murders were below their 2019 levels by 6%. Sexual assaults were down by 26%. Robbery down by 19%. Domestic violence down 11%. Overall, violent crime had finally returned to its pre-pandemic, pre-George Floyd levels.

In fact, the CCJ reported, “[2024] Homicide rates in some high-homicide cities, including Baltimore, Detroit, and St. Louis, have dropped even further, returning to the levels of 2014, when national homicide rates were at historic lows.”

In contrast, Chicago violent crime overall in 2024 was still 17% above its 2019 levels. Murders were 16% higher. Robbery, 17% up. And aggravated assaults, up 32%.

Fortunately for Chicago, the national murder numbers for 2025 are dropping off even more. And that’s saying something considering 2024 may set a record for the biggest drop in the national murder rate ever. If Chicago can keep up with the national trend for the rest of the year, then residents can look forward to an even steeper drop during the rest of the year.

The problem for Mayor Johnson is that it’s hard for people to give him any credit when his policies – and those of former Mayor Lori Lightfoot – may have actually held back Chicago’s decline in crime.

Both leaders demoralized the police force. They blocked officers from performing the basic acts of car and foot chases. They consistently promoted decarcerationist and decriminalization policies. Johnson removed Shotspotter. And he’s been an apologist for Teen Takeovers (Kids being silly).

It’s easy to see why Chicagoans might think crime in Chicago hasn’t fallen.

Certainly there’s the perception that crime is still bad because bad events are still happening. There was the Teen Takeover at the end of March. A “wilding” of 14 suspects on the L took place just last week. And robbery sprees continue in upscale neighborhoods like Lakeview and Streeterville.

Finally at 2019 levels

All that said, we should note that Chicago crime continues to come down in 2025. Homicides on a year-to-date basis are finally below the 2019 number for the same time period.

Violent crime year to date in 2025 is also below the same YTD 2019 levels.

That good news, however, is dampened by the fact that all other cities are dramatically improving, too. And that means Chicago remains an extreme outlier when it comes to murders.

Take the comparison of Chicago vs. New York City. Chicago has 141 murders this year through May 18. New York City, with more than three times the population, has just 104.

Do the math and Chicago has a murder rate still 4.3 times higher than NYCs.

In the end, we should celebrate Chicago’s better crime numbers. Less bloodshed is less bloodshed, and that’s great.

But establishing causation will take time. We expect to see much analysis from around the country on what cities have cut crime the most and what policies they emphasized. That will give us better clues to what’s working.

Note: Violent crime numbers reported on the Mayor’s Chicago Violence Reduction Dashboard count the number of victims of crime while the CPD’s CompStat report counts the number of crimes committed by criminals. That difference means the two datasets will have slightly different numbers.