Novo Nordisk’s Monthly Share Plunge Largest Since Dot Com Bust

Novo Nordisk A/S shares are on track for their steepest monthly decline since the Dot-Com bust as setbacks pile up for the Danish drugmaker. Weaker-than-expected demand for Wegovy and Ozempic, disappointing mid-stage trial results for its weight-loss pill monlunabant, and poor data from another experimental shot, CagriSema, have heavily weighed on Novo share price since last June. Adding to the pressure is a broader downturn in biotech, fueled partly by Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s leadership at Health and Human Services to reform the captured federal agency.

Shares in Copenhagen are on track to close down around 27% for the month—marking their worst monthly performance since June 2002, during the aftermath of the Dot-Com bust.

Shares have been nearly halved (-54%) since peaking at around 1,000 Danish kroner in June 2024.

Adding context to the softening demand for obesity drugs, Morgan Stanley analyst Thibault Boutherin recently noted, „Wegovy US prescriptions data track below consensus expectations and guidance, with Eli Lilly winning share and Novo total prescriptions and starting dose prescriptions flat.”

Janus Henderson analyst Luyi Guo told clients, „There have been a lot of little hits to confidence,” adding, „I definitely don’t think that Novo is a disaster like how the stock has behaved. But people have started to question its pre-eminent growth story.”

On Monday, Barclays analyst Emily Field lowered her US Wegovy and Ozempic sales forecast, telling clients: „Scripts did not grow to the extent we needed them to meet our forecasts.”

Bloomberg data shows that Wall Street analysts are mostly bullish, with about 70% „Buys,” 8.8% „Sells,” and 20.6% „Holds” on Novo shares.

Meanwhile, Goldman’s GLP-1 Winner Basket has tumbled over the last year, down about 25%, reflecting the deflating obesity drug bubble and RFK Jr. at HHS. GLP-1 Loser Basket averages +10%.

It certainly sounds like Novo super bull, Goldman’s James Quigley, is continuing to cover the stock…

After plunging 50%, the question now is when Novo becomes a buying opportunity. It’s definitely one to watch.