Собственная панель инструментов Goldman для работающих бедных потребителей подает «смешанные» сигналы

McDonald’s told investors earlier that lower-income consumers remained under financial pressure in the fourth quarter as the inflation storm sparked by the Biden-Harris administration eroded their spending on Big Macs and McFlurries. The warning from MCD suggests headwinds for this consumer segment lingers into spring.

Additional consumer insights come from Goldman’s Emily Ghosh, Nishi Agarwal, and colleagues, who published a lower-income activity dashboard. The dashboard aggregates macro data, industry insights, and high-frequency indicators—such as app downloads and store traffic—to reveal mixed monthly trends among consumers earning less than $30K annually.

Here’s more color on the low-income consumer update from Goldman:

While we think investors are more confident in the health of the consumer in 2025, we continue to receive questions on the overall health of the lowest income consumer given mixed data points from macro indicators and company commentary. Our lower income activity dashboard analyzes a wide range of data across macro, industry, and higher frequency sources (e.g., app downloads, web traffic, and store traffic) in an effort to evaluate the health of that consumer cohort. We observe that monthly trends that reflect the health of the lower income consumer (defined as households that earn , with a possible tailwind coming from lower gasoline prices and improved employment trends and likely offset with headwinds from weaker credit metrics and mixed consumer confidence, while engagement trends reflect a wide range across discretionary retailers. Overall, the data set suggests a relatively consistent backdrop for the lower end consumer from last quarter with discretionary spending remaining selective. We will continue to monitor company commentary around the consumer as we progress through earnings.

Lower-income activity dashboard

Ghosh’s note on mixed consumer trends for the working poor is in line with McDonald’s fourth-quarter earnings that reported:

The low-income consumer in the US was still down double-digits in Q4, and this segment is overweighted in the industry relative to the US in total.

Meanwhile, more broadly, consumers are draining personal savings and adding insurmountable credit card debt, as shown by the latest consumer credit debt data (See: Consumer Credit Unexpectedly Surges By Most On Record Despite All-Time High APRs).

Nothing to worry about here…

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The takeaway is that low-income consumers continue to face strong headwinds that are likely to persist through the spring, although lower energy costs may provide some much-needed relief.