Рынок труда США встряхнуло резкое оживление из-за роста числа вакансий и увеличения числа новых сотрудников

One month after the BLS reported that in March the labor market reverted to its deteriorating trendline, when the US sported some 7.192 million job openings (revised to 7.2 million), a drop from 7.480 million in February, moments ago the latest JOLTS report showed that in April the labor market unexpectedly stabilized with the number of job openings rising sharply by 191K, the biggest increase since January’s 254K, and above estimates of a 7.1 million print.

According to the BLS, the number of job openings decreased in accommodation and food services (-135,000) and in state and local government, education (-51,000). The number of job openings increased in arts, entertainment, and
recreation (+43,000) and in mining and logging (+10,000).

Also notable is that the slide in Federal Government job openings last month was unexpectedly revised higher from 98K (the first sub-100K print since covid) to 121K for March, and then rose again to 134K in April, confirming that Musk – and DOGE – have left the building.

In the context of the broader jobs report, in February the number of job openings was 109 more than the number of unemployed workers (which the BLS reported was 7.083 million), down from 428K the previous month, and the lowest differentials since the covid crash.

Still, as noted previously, until this number turns negative – which it probably will in a month or two – the US labor market is not demand constrained, and a recession has never started in a period when there were more job openings than unemployed workers.

Said otherwise, in April the number of job openings to unemployed remained unchanged at exactly 1.0.

While the job openings data was a beat and a rebound, there was more good news on the hiring side where the number of new hires also rose to 5.573 million from 5.404 million, the highest since last May, and hardly screaming collapse in the labor market. Meanwhile, the number of workers quitting their jobs – a sign of confidence in finding a better paying job elsewhere – dropped modestly after rising the previous month, and in April it dipped to 3.194 million, down from 3.344 million, perhaps the only blemish in today’s JOLTS report.

How to make sense of this sudden improvement in the labor market?

Well it may have to do with the DOL starting to factor in the collapse in the shadow labor market – the one dominated by illegal aliens – and the replacement of illegals with legal, domestic workers. And since this will surely lead to higher wages, we doubt many Trump supporters will hate the development, even if it means an increase in inflation down the line.