Romanian Prime Minister To Resign After Conservative Candidate Crushes Coalition In Do-Over Election
Update (0825ET): Romania’s prime minister will resign on Monday after a conservative opposition leader who aligned himself with Donald Trump scored a resounding first-round victory in the Black Sea nation’s presidential election.
Bloomberg reports, that Marcel Ciolacu informed coalition partners of the decision to submit his resignation in a meeting Monday in Bucharest, according to people familiar with the decision who spoke on condition of anonymity. The government will be led by an interim premier until coalition parties choose Ciolacu’s successor. There are no current plans for an early election.
The prime minister’s decision was a response to the electoral defeat of the coalition’s preferred candidate in Sunday’s first-round contest, in which George Simion of the ultranationalist Alliance for the Union of Romanians secured more than 40%.
He’ll face off against Nicusor Dan, the centrist mayor of Bucharest.
As Goldman notes, as a result of his outperformance relative to opinion polls in the first round, the probability of Simion winning the second round has risen sharply in betting markets, from 30% probability prior to the vote to 69%, with Dan at 31%.
As a reminder, the contest was the second attempt to choose a president after the shock victory of another far-right fringe candidate last year prompted accusations of Kremlin interference and the top court’s cancellation of the ballot. The unexpected first-round victory in November of Calin Georgescu, who has been banned from running in Sunday’s race, triggered Romania’s biggest political crisis since the fall of communism.
While the Romanian people have spoken a second time, the market seems less excited as Romanian government bonds fell after the first round of a presidential election delivered the victory of a far-right figure and eliminated the candidate backed by the ruling coalition.
The yield on the 10-year domestic notes jumped 20 basis points to 7.79%, the highest since the end of January; yields on shorter maturities also rose.
Romania’s dollar-denominated bonds also weakened and were among the worst performers in emerging markets on Monday; notes due in 2051 fell almost 1 cent on the dollar to about 58 cents
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In the latest chapter in the country’s months-long political drama that has seen an election thrown out and the winner charged with political crimes, 38-year-old conservative nationalist George Simion decisively won the first round of balloting in Romania’s „do-over” presidential election, sending him to a May 18 runoff where he’ll face centrist Bucharest mayor Nicusor Dan.
Simion has likened his political philosophy to Donald Trump’s, saying his Alliance for the Union of Romanians party is „a Trumpist party,” and promising to „Make Romania Great Again.” The win is a buzzkill for Western leftists who’ve been enjoying the afterglow of comeback victories in Canada and Australia.
Though his first-round win was expected, Simion far outperformed the polling, taking 41% of the vote, versus the 30% projected by a recent poll of polls. Dan took 21%, edging Crin Antonescu, a candidate from the current governing coalition, who took 20%. Simion clearly has the inside track for the runoff, as observers say he’s likely to gain quite a few votes from members of other parties whose beliefs align more closely with Simion than Dan. „Simion has a bigger pool of votes than Dan at the moment,” political scientist Cristian Pirvulescu told Reuters.
George Simion (right) casts his ballot with fellow nationalist Calin Georgescu, who won the first-round balloting in November only to have the election thrown outSimion called the election a „victory for Romanian dignity…Despite the obstacles, despite the manipulation, despite a press paid to demean us day after day, Romanians have stood up.” The election has been closely watched by Western powers, as it could reshape Romania’s relationships with the European Union and NATO.
However, while he’s criticized both entities, don’t expect Simion to usher Romania out of either of them. In various comments leading up to the election, he discounted the idea of Romania exiting NATO or the EU, sounded alarms over the supposed Russian menace, advocated continued sanctions against Moscow, and embraced increased European military spending. Consider these Simion quotes from an interview with the Financial Times:
- “Our stance cannot be changed. Eighty percent of the Romanians want NATO and want the European Union. This is not something we can negotiate.”
- “Putin’s Russia was and is one of the biggest threats for the European states, especially for us, for the Baltic states and for Poland.”
- “Without a common geopolitical bloc, like . . . NATO, led by the US, we are in a big danger.”
While foreign observers tend to view the election through a NATO/EU lens, domestic political concerns are probably far more important to a public fed up with the corruption and incompetence of the mainstream parties. “Simion is the main representative of a strong anti-system feeling in Romanian society,” political analyst Radu Magdin told Politico.
Simion has promised, if elected, to help secure a position in Romanian government for Calin Georgescu — perhaps as prime minister. In a huge, poll-defying upset in November, nationalist Georgescu won the first round of balloting in Romania’s first go at this presidential election. Then, just two days before the runoff, the country’s Constitutional Court threw out the election and ordered it to be started anew — based on shaky allegations that his victory was the result of Russian interference.
Romania has seen large protests against the annulment of November’s presidential election and the banning of its winner (Vadim Ghirda, AP via France24)Georgescu was barred from running again. In February, Georgescu was arrested and questioned as he faced Orwellian allegations of disseminating „false information” and „incitement to actions against the constitutional order.” Upon his release from custody, he was forbidden from appearing on mass media or creating social media accounts. Huge protests followed each move by the government to banish Georgescu from politics and discourse. In addition to charges of illegal campaign tactics, he’s also been charged with helping to establish an organization “with a fascist, racist or xenophobic character.”
Campaigning last fall, Georgescu pledged to restore Romanian sovereignty and put an end to what he characterizes as subservience to NATO and the EU. He took a hard line against the presence of NATO’s missile defense system that’s based in Deveselu, southern Romania, calling it a „shame of diplomacy” that is more confrontational than peace-promoting. He has also pushed for Romania to pursue a non-interventionist policy in the Ukraine war, and said US arms-makers were manipulating the conflict.
Whatever his degree of nationalism, Simion is poised to become the third nationalist leading an eastern European country, alongside Hungary’s Viktor Orban and Slovakia’s Robert Fico — that is, unless the leftists once again find a way to bar a popular right-wing candidate from victory.
Tyler Durden
Mon, 05/05/2025 – 08:30
