This month, millions of Belarusians will prepare for their country’s presidential election. On the ballot will be individuals from organizations specified as the Liberal Democratic Party, the Republican organization of Labour and Justice, and the Communist organization of Belarus.
But there will be a victor before a single ballot has been cast. This will be no another than the current Belarusian president Alyaksandr Lukashenka.
Since his first campaign during the 1994 Belarusian presidential election, Lukashenka has worked hard to keep his control of the Belarusian government. He has now refused to relinquish power for over 3 decades. In the following elections, the Belarusian leader will work one more time to undermine his political opponents.
The most fresh events occurred ahead of the 2024 parliamentary election. During the buildup to the election, the Belarusian ultimate Court shut down respective opposition political parties. respective organizations were banned, and Belarusian state media worked hard to positively represent political candidates who supported the Lukashenka regime. Furthermore, the political parties loyal to the Belarusian president were consolidated, meaning voters had less choices at the polls.
No opposition candidates were allowed in the 2024 parliamentary election. The results of the political process were deemed a sham. Exit polls showed that 73 per cent of the country had voted for candidates loyal to Lukashenka and his regime. The results meant that Lukashenka would establish a firmer grasp on the Belarusian government, politics and the citizenry.
Lukashenka is besides determined to proceed his rule. Ahead of the upcoming 2025 presidential election on January 26th, the Central Election Commission of Belarus late announced that it had rejected respective candidates. This meant that less individuals would run against Lukashenka, making it easier for the Belarusian dictator to strengthen his grip on the country.
These events have upset thousands of Belarusians. Members of the Belarusian opposition movement criticized the results of the 2024 parliamentary election, stating that the results were fabricated and only gave Lukashenka more power. The opposition has called the process undemocratic, and many Belarusians are now fearful of voicing their opinions as they are afraid for their safety.
Outside of the opposition movement, respective members of the Belarusian military have unfavourable opinions of the president. erstwhile Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Lukashenka invited Russia to decision weapons and soldiers into Belarusian territory. Over the past 3 years, Lukashenka permitted Russia to fire missiles from Belarus into Ukraine. In addition, the Belarusian leader allowed Moscow to transport military equipment and weapons from Belarus into Ukraine. respective people in Belarusian society have openly opposed Lukashenka’s decisions. any members of the military have even resigned in protest against Lukashenka’s decision to support Russia’s war. Meanwhile, another members of the Belarusian military have left the country so that they can join foreign legions that are helping to defend Ukrainian territory.
Other members of the military who argue Lukashenka have been incapable to leave. For example, any members who openly protest against the Belarusian leader have been forcibly imprisoned.
Since the 2020 Belarusian presidential election, over 1,400 Belarusian political opponents (both civilian and military) have been imprisoned. These dissidents have been wrongfully detained by the Lukashenka government and have faced beatings and torture. They were besides given lengthy jail sentences as Lukashenka sees them as a threat to his rule.
The result of the sham 2024 parliamentary election, preceded by the stolen 2020 presidential election, has only shown signs of what is to come in Belarus. Aside from forcibly dissolving political opposition parties or wrongfully imprisoning political opponents, Lukashenka has threatened Belarusian citizens with the death punishment and another forms of punishment for speaking out against him and his administration. The Belarusian government has besides increased its surveillance throughout the country. Belarusian police have been known to patrol the streets of key Belarusian cities. Citizens are no longer allowed to form large gatherings and demonstrations. Finally, Belarusian state media is full controlled by the government. Media broadcasts have simply spread the opinions of Minsk, falsifying the popularity of Lukashenka and his interior circle.
But the opposition movement will not give up. It is determined to fight for a free and democratic Belarusian state. Prominent members of the opposition now make frequent visits to their counterparts in the United States, United Kingdom and the European Union. During these meetings, they discuss how to advance greater transparency and prosecute democratic processes in the fight for their country. These individuals have besides discussed how western countries can impose stiffer penalties on Lukashenka and his regime. These financial punishments have been costly for Lukashenka as they have further distanced Belarus from western institutions and trade. Finally, the opposition movement has highlighted human rights abuses and violations by the Lukashenka regime. They hope this information will force global actors to further punish Lukashenka.
Unfortunately, these actions have not been enough. While the Belarusian opposition movement continues to have its voice heard, and while specified groups have met with prominent planet leaders and figures as they work to fight for a free and prosperous Belarus, the situation within the country itself is very different. Lukashenka will likely bargain the forthcoming presidential election. He will endanger anyone who opposes him. Then, he will make fresh forms of punishment for those who undermine him.
Nonetheless, the Belarusian opposition movement cannot give up. Should the opposition’s efforts be successful, this could bring real change to the country. It would take time, but it would let Belarus to build stronger relationships with western institutions. The country could prosecute western values and traditions, and this would aid improve the quality of life within Belarus. Finally, it would let Belarusian citizens to peacefully work together without constant fear of persecution or imprisonment.
In short, much is at stake ahead of the 2025 Belarusian presidential election. It is likely that Lukashenka will bargain the election and proclaim himself the victor of yet another falsified outcome. But it will be crucial to see how the opposition movement will respond to these events. Time will tell how the Belarusian people and the opposition will combat Lukashenka’s antics, and if they will be successful.
Mark Temnycky is an accredited freelance journalist covering Eurasian affairs and a nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center.
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