NINA PÁNIKOVÁ & ADAM REICHARDT: We are speaking following the nerve-wrecking first circular of the Moldovan presidential elections and the referendum on its pro-EU way on October 20th. If you followed the results overnight to October 21st, you would see that the “no” run was actually ahead until it shifted dramatically erstwhile the votes from the diaspora began to trickle in. yet the consequence was 50.35 per cent for the “yes” camp. This means that Moldova will make EU accession a constitutional goal. president Maia Sandu did express concerns over external interference in the vote. What is your take on these results and what do they tell us about the levels of support for the EU in Moldovan society?
OKTAWIAN MILEWSKI: Let’s start with the formal result. Whatever we say, whatever happened, the formal consequence is that the referendum or EU integration was validated with a yes, and the naysayers were defeated. So, formally it means that it will have judicial and constitutional consequences in a while, usually after the second tour of the presidential elections. The constitutional court will do all the essential procedures to amend the constitution and declare EU integration a national, constitutional goal. But leaving this aside, not dismissing its importance for Moldovan politics and institutions naturally, we gotta take a look at what the unseen part of this iceberg contains. 1 thing to explain is that inside the country, the vote from the Moldovan territory itself was actually negative for peculiar reasons that should be explained. fundamentally 54 per cent of the population voted against, and 46 per cent in favour. But this is not the full mass of the Moldovan voters. There is besides about 1 million Moldovans abroad. possibly even more. Residing mainly in western countries like Italy, France, Germany, Spain, Portugal, UK and the US. The majority has Romanian passports, meaning they could besides be called Romanians. Leaving that aspect aside, this diaspora voted in masses in this referendum. They changed the dynamic adding almost 9 per cent by any accounts. These votes changed the result. From a full of any 245,000 abroad votes, any 77 per cent, meaning 181,000, voted in favour of EU integration. These changed the destiny of the negative vote. Now we gotta explain what happened in Moldova – why it is specified an unexpected shock that all of the territory voted against. The opinion polls were suggesting that the pro-EU vote might scope 60 per cent. any even indicated 61 or 62 per cent. Others said no, 55 per cent. So, it was a rather comfortable march. Everyone was projecting and planning accordingly. Personally, I’m a regular Moldova-watcher, and I was comparing opinion polls from over a period from 4 or 5 different pollsters. They were all suggesting this number. That the EU vote would be in favour, and that Maia Sandu will be elected in the first round. Obviously, everyone was enthusiastic, rejoicing and so forth. Then comes the evening of the election erstwhile we slow started to get emotional reasoning that we were losing it. The Moldovan strategy of counting is electronic and efficient. You can observe the number online. I think possibly hundreds of thousands or millions were glued to the page of the Central Electoral Commission observing how 36 per cent in favour and sixty something were against. We were in shock before it all started changing. The vote is simply a triumph that might turn out to be a “Pyrrhic victory” and should be confirmed only erstwhile Maia Sandu is re-elected as president. Imagine the script if Sandu loses and the next president is simply a pro-Russian 1 who starts to derail the pro-European course of Moldova which would end with the parliamentary elections scheduled for July.
Is there any explanation why there was specified a difference between the polling and the actual result. due to the fact that many of us are reasoning of another elections coming up. Will we see akin trends? How is it explained in Moldova. Why specified a difference?
Excellent question and truly the next the next logical query in this Moldovan saga. Why did it happen? Why were the opinion surveys so wrong? Why couldn’t they take into account something so hard to survey and research? This is simply a massive unprecedented malign interference of a network funded by Russia. Mainly through a foundation called Evrazia fond based in Moscow, run by Ilan Shor, a fugitive oligarch, who has massive support from Russia’s secret services. It is connected to a number of another oligarchs who have escaped from Moldova, residing in northern-Cyprus and London, like Veaceslav Platon, who is benefiting from the protections offered by the British democratic state and has filed for asylum 3 years ago. From there, individuals like Shor and Platon together with respective FSB generals and their associates have constructed a network of malign influence, propaganda and electoral corruption both passive and active inside Moldova. Up to 300,000 people might have been active in this fraud. This is what explains why these opinion polls were so wrong. Most likely it’s not just that they were wrong, but alternatively that they couldn’t have researched this issue of the fraud. You cannot see it. You cannot measurement it. So, this brings you an mistake of 10-15 per cent. This is why nobody could see it. This is the answer why Maia Sandu arrived late at night, much later than expected, talking about a fraud of 300,000. We don’t know if it was 300 or 250 thousand. But there was a very thorough calculus made in Moscow that should have brought defeat to the pro-EU camp. However, they could not have taken into account the diaspora. This is something they cannot control. Those 180,000 votes obtained in the diaspora neutralized this massive diversion to defeat the pro-European camp during the elections. This is the answer to your question.
Its truly shocking and possibly we’ll get into it a bit more. The level of the interference is unprecedented and almost managed to accomplish its goals. Let’s first take a look at the presidential election itself, as it was 2 votes. You mentioned already that the incumbent Maia Sandu was expected to win in the first round, and she didn’t. She didn’t win with a full majority, with 42 per cent of the vote. Second place going to Alexandr Stoianoglo, who is from the Socialist party, a pro-Russian candidate. Firstly, tell us about him, what should we know about him?
Alexandr Stoianoglo is simply a comparative newcomer in Moldovan politics. He is the erstwhile prosecutor-general, a product of the judicial strategy of the 1990s in Moldova. From the immediate post-Soviet years, a typical typical of this profession in the post-Soviet space. With all the critical and negative aspects of it. A kind of prosecutor who collaborated with certain shady figures. He was besides a second-rank politician in the most oligarchic organization of Moldova (Democratic Party). Being of Gagauz ethnicity, he besides served in the autonomous territorial unit. He was never seen as ‘one of ours’ in Gagauzia. He was more accepted in Chișinău. Most of his professional life was spent in the capital. He does not even have a property of his own in Comrat, if I’m not mistaken. In 2019, the erstwhile president Igor Dodon elected him as prosecutor general propelling him into the first row. There were suspicions that he was a man of the system, but there was no real evidence that this guy is connected to the oligarchy and organized crime. Until the day erstwhile he freed a criminal nicknamed the no 1. financial rigger of the post-Soviet planet in 2020. This the Veaceslav Platon who now resides in London. All of a sudden, he was freed from jail with the prosecutor general claiming that he was there illegally and the procedure was fraudulent. We can discuss this further speaking about oligarchy and the dark nights of Moldovan politics. Back to Stoianoglo. The organization already in government, the organization of Action and Solidarity founded by Sandu, started the procedure of firing the prosecutor general. They placed him under home arrest, but in the end, he was released from this procedure. While being investigated on six charges, he starts putting on a political hat until February 2024, erstwhile erstwhile president Igor Dodon, 1 of the most pro-Russian actors in Moldova, who has 14 charges against himself, including treason, supports Stoianoglo’s officially independent bid for the presidency. The Social Democratic organization which backs his candidacy is controlled by certain offices of the FSB. This is my observation. A number of those offices work on Moldova. He accepts it and this is erstwhile we scope the minute he runs for presidency being supported by the biggest pro-Russian organization in Moldova. He received 26 per cent of the vote, being second only to Maia Sandu. Initially, he was credited with between 9-14 per cent in the polls. As I explained earlier, half of the vote obtained by him in the first circular of the election seems to be through this massive fraud steered by a network operating from Moscow. The sums most likely amount to between 10-15 million euros per month. This has been ongoing for at least 1 year, while everybody was believing that this started in spring. It is being investigated only now, so we don’t precisely know the size of this subversive run against the constitutional authorities of Moldova, the country in general. This is what hybrid warfare looks like in the first line. I consider Moldova and Georgia as the first line and Ukraine the zero line.
Of course, it is impossible not to come back to the Russian influence erstwhile we are discussing this. You mentioned this massive fraud that has been ongoing for a year, but I am besides wondering about any of the another methods employed during the votes. Given the results, do you think that this form of meddling was successful?
Yes, I think it was a success. The operation is inactive in motion, and we don’t full know the details. I was speaking only about Stoianoglo, but this is not the full story, possibly the cherry on top of this cake. We have another candidates, for instance Renato Usatii, Victoria Furtună and a number of others who were all coordinated by this Ilan Shor network of parties, organizations and people, frequently with criminal circles involved. There is simply a alleged thief-in-law who has been based for 2 decades in Moscow. His name is Grigory Karamalak who is besides an assistant to 1 of the MPs of the United Russia party. And this guy is profoundly active in fundamentally anything that has a criminal dimension in the network of Ilan Shor. He’s not alone. There are others as well. So, the crime aspect is very important. We gotta take into account that the empire is dividing, undermining and subverting the space a lot utilizing the aid of criminal networks which it has enlisted long ago into its strategy of means and methods to manipulate states. Not only, Moldova, but besides Ukraine, Georgia, Armenia and even the Balkans have examples of this kind of activity. Back to another types of Russian activity and another political personalities that were involved.
It’s hard for me not to mention Natalia Morari, formerly a journalist, influencer and opinion maker, who was considered a luminary and a liberal educated in Moscow. She was close to Nemtsov, Navalny, Yevgenia Albats and Ilya Yashin. And this individual is the partner of Vyacheslav Platon. Back to square one. She has a kid with him and 2 years ago, in summer, she was visited by Yuliya Navalna. I mean, effort aid me realize this world. And this individual ran on a very aggressive run against Maia Sandu, backing Telegram and YouTube channels. quite a few the electoral video content that was thrown into the public space was done with her aid and people like her. Before that she was an integral part of the planet of pro-European forces. How can you explain that? Now you gotta callback as a Moldova watcher that years back, there were voices in Chișinău saying that Natalia Morari is most most likely a sleeper agent of the FSB. Point your finger at your temple and show that you are not average to say specified a thing – come on it’s impossible! Anybody, just not Natalia Morari. And of course, then you have this example, and Morari is not alone. This is 1 very clear example. She obtained 0.6 per cent of the vote. This is just the beginning of her political career. Chișinău is replete with these kinds of stooges, but not only in the capital. They are creating an effect. Just take Victoria Furtună. She was a prosecutor until March erstwhile she resigned and went to Transnistria to launch her candidacy in front of a statue of General Suvorov. The 1 who conquered and founded Novorossiya and reached the Alps in the Napoleonic Wars. This is an image of imperial expansion and domination and so on. She enters the presidential race and receives many more votes as she was backed by Shor in Orhei. In Gagauzia she receives a 3rd of the vote. An crucial aspect is that among the instruments she utilized was the massive backing by the Russian Orthodox church, which is surprising. I can’t explain it. There were any groupings within the Russian state, within the FSB, which are servicing the Kremlin, right? So, there was a decision that the church deals with this one, this oligarch deals with this 1 and all of them are centralized in the Kremlin and facilitated by Ilan Shor’s Evrazia fund. It is like a full planet of money, agents, criminals and specialists in public relations, offices and trolls. This hydra completes a image of malign activity and fraud directed against the incumbent power in Chișinău.
We don’t know how deep the roots are and how influential this hydra is. You cannot solve it between the voting rounds. We truly felt in this run that there was 1 large organization mistake done by the current government. Namely the postponement and then silent cancelling of the police reform. You could feel it during that Sunday vote as you could not manage this massive network of corruption aimed at the electorate. So, the police didn’t do its duty. But why? The police utilized to be 1 of the main institutions active in criminality in Moldova. Many of those people were active in smuggling schemes of regional dimension that impacted everything. erstwhile you don’t cleanse and purify, erstwhile you don’t vet this strategy you will end up with these people in the higher echelons. Okay, the leadership of the police is reformed, they are not corrupt people. I cannot believe they are, but behind them there are dozens, hundreds of these officers who didn’t do their jobs. This is why this fraud is so efficient due to the fact that the police didn’t track, arrest and punish those that carried out the operation on the lower levels.
This is an excerpt of an interview recorded for Talk east Europe Episode 198: Moldova clings on to its pro-EU path. You can perceive to the full episode for free here.
Oktawian Milewski is a political scientist specialising in Central and East European studies. He is presently a Poland resident correspondent for Radio France Internationale, Romanian office.
Adam Reichardt is the editor in chief of New east Europe and co-host of the Talk east Europe podcast.
Nina Pániková is simply a is a elder capacity building officer at with the Human Rights home Foundation and co-host of the Talk east Europe podcast.
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