US Consumer Prices Continue To Refuse To Bow To Trump Tariff Terror

dailyblitz.de 3 часы назад

With a new boss looming at The BLS, one wonders what the 'old boss’ has in hand for today’s CPI data (with consensus seeing both headline and core YoY price changes ticking higher) after June’s consumer prices came in cooler than expected, disappointing the Trump Tariff Tantrum crowd. Will this time be different… Will the dreaded tariff-flation show up this time?

Headline CPI rose 0.2% MoM in July (as expected) and +2.7% YoY (cooler than the 2.8% expected) and in line with the June print…

Source: Bloomberg

Headline CPI rose 0.2%, after rising 0.3% in June. CPI Core rose 0.3% in July, following a 0.2% increase in June.

Indexes that increased over the month include medical care, airline fares, recreation, household furnishings and operations, and used cars and trucks.
The indexes for lodging away from home and communication were among the few major indexes that decreased in July.

Core CPI rose 0.3% MoM (as expected) but YoY rose 3.1% (hotter than the 3.0% expected) – the highest since February…

Source: Bloomberg

Under the hood, Fuel Oil and Transportation costs rose the most but Gasoline and Food at Home costs fell MoM…

Core CPI MoM Details:

The shelter index increased 0.2 percent over the month.
- The index for owners’ equivalent rent rose 0.3 percent in July as did the index for rent.
- Conversely, the lodging away from home index fell 1.0 percent in July.
The medical care index increased 0.7 percent over the month, following a 0.5-percent increase in June.
- The index for dental services increased 2.6 percent in July and the index for hospital and related services increased 0.4 percent.
- The physicians’ services index rose 0.2 percent over the month, while the prescription drugs index fell 0.2 percent.
The index for airline fares increased 4.0 percent over the month, after declining 0.1 percent in June.
The recreation index increased 0.4 percent over the month, as did the household furnishings and operations index.
The index for used cars and trucks rose 0.5 percent in July and the index for personal care rose 0.4 percent.
The new vehicles index was unchanged over the month while the communication index fell 0.3 percent.

Annual changes:

The shelter index increased 3.7 percent over the last year. Other indexes with notable increases over the last year include medical care (+3.5 percent), household furnishings and operations (+3.4 percent), motor vehicle insurance (+5.3 percent), and recreation (+2.4 percent).

Goods inflation is accelerating (some will argue 'tariffs’, some will argue fuel) while Services inflation has stabilized…