Mercedes ссылается на «тарифы и волатильность» при очередном отзыве рекомендаций для автопроизводителей

Some of Europe’s largest automakers have withdrawn their financial guidance for the year, citing mounting macroeconomic uncertainty sparked by President Trump’s trade war. While Trump signed an order Tuesday easing specific auto tariffs, Mercedes-Benz Group still withdrew its full-year outlook.

„The current volatility with regard to tariff policies, mitigation measures and resulting potential direct and indirect effects in particular on customer behaviour and demand is too high to reliably assess the business development for the remainder of the year,” Mercedes warned in an earnings press release for the first quarter.

Mercedes ships Europe-made vehicles via cargo ships to North America while also producing SUVs, luxury vehicles, EVs, and vans at its Tuscaloosa, Alabama, and Charleston, South Carolina plants.

At its Tuscaloosa plant, Mercedes manufactures SUVs such as the GLE, GLS, GLE Coupe, and the ultra-luxury Mercedes-Maybach GLS, as well as electric models like the EQE and EQS SUVs. In Charleston, the company produces both the Sprinter and e-Sprinter vans.

On Tuesday evening, President Trump signed an executive order aimed at easing the burden of auto-related tariffs. The order includes provisions to lower duties on steel, aluminum, and foreign-made parts, and prevents multiple tariffs from stacking on a single vehicle. However, the 25% tariff on imported vehicles entering the US remains in place.

Under the order, additional 25% tariffs on auto parts will begin on May 3, but vehicles that go through final assembly in the US will qualify for partial reimbursements on those levies for two years.

At a rally in Michigan, Trump told the crowd his administration will „slaughter them [automakers] if they don’t” re-shore critical supply chains of parts to the US.

Trump announces a rollback in his tariff policy for automobiles, but then says „we give them a little time before we slaughter them if they don’t do this.” pic.twitter.com/VyOaVXQi9c

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) April 29, 2025

In addition to Mercedes, Stellantis NV, Volvo Car, and General Motors have all pulled their full-year forecasts because of tariffs.

Volkswagen has left its outlook unchanged for the year but warned it has yet to factor in the tariffs, while Aston Martin has announced plans to limit shipments of its luxury sports cars to the US.

Goldman analyst Jeremy Elster commented on the European auto industry…

AUTOS… trading flat on the day despite the guidance suspensions and cuts. Tariff relief is part of the explanation. Perhaps not directly, but because it hints at willingness to bend to industry pressuree on relief (more on tariff relief details from mark Delaney here). Going through the prints today:

• Mercedes miss & suspend guide. Saying guide would be in tact were it not for tariffs, which makes P911 material downgrades PRE tariff impacts yesterday look even worse in hindsight. The MBG 1Q is a bit better in the details; Cars margin 7.3% vs cons 6.9%, and yet another strong cash quarter (Ind FCF 2,405m vs consensus 1,790m, a 34% beat), albeit this is somewhat overshadowed by the specific cash comment on tariffs; „negative impacts on the cash conversion rates of the automotive segments cannot be ruled out either”. On the call, company saying fy impact of tariffs from here would be around -300bps to Cars margins (i.e. annualised impact would be higher)… implies material downgrades (as much as 400bps vs 7% margin guide starting point, pre mitigation).

• VW first take is worse of the two German prints. Difficult to marry the optimism we heard from the company through q1 with another margins miss at Brand Group Core, but perhaps tailwinds from stronger Europe production become more evident over q2/q3. Headline group ebit is a -7% miss, margins are a 20bps miss, cash flow is more or less in-line. Guide is moved to low end of the range, but does not include any impact from tariffs.

• STLAM 1Q is revenues only, but also a small miss (-1% vs consensus). Net price -3.4% looks a little worse than feared. Guidance is suspended. Inventories ticked up slightly vs Q4 to support better expected deliveries in Europe in Q2. We’ve started to field some more, very hesitant, constructive incoming on STLA given tariff relief in US (relative to German OEMs), but for the stock to turn the market will need more confidence on cash and market share stabilisation.

The trade war adds to the problems for European automakers, who face muted demand across Europe and rising competition from Chinese brands, including BYD.