On November 17th 1989, 36 years ago, citizens of Czechoslovakia – following crucial events in Poland, Hungary and East Germany – went into the streets to do distant with communist regulation and reclaim their freedom and democracy. The non-violent Velvet Revolution shortly spread beyond Prague and another major cities, with citizens gathering in public squares to request democracy, liberty and human rights. These values were embodied by the personality of the author and dissident Václav Havel, who was later elected by the parliament as the first post-communist president of Czechoslovakia and, in 1993, of the independent Czech Republic. The shift from socialist dictatorship to pluralist democracy besides meant a shift from unequivocal geopolitical recognition with the russian Union to a “return” to the West. Becoming a full-fledged associate of NATO, the European Union, and the OECD became the eventual and unquestioned goal of Czech abroad policy in the 1990s.
Cut to autumn 2025. Based on the results of the October general elections, a government is being formed by a businessman-turned-politician, whose populist ANO movement is about to lead a coalition containing the far-right, xenophobic, anti-EU and anti-NATO SPD, as well as the conservative and petro-masculine coded Motorists for Themselves. In their draft programme declaration, the coalition takes a confrontational speech with the European Union, fails to commit to fulfilling NATO spending targets, does not admit the threat coming from Russia, and argues for a pragmatic alternatively than “activist” abroad policy – in reaction to the erstwhile government’s engagement in relations with Taiwan and strong support for Ukraine’s defence against Russia. On paper, this government, consisting of 2 members of the Patriots for Europe group and 1 associate of the Europe of the Sovereign Nations group, will be the most utmost in the European Union.
As profoundly other as these 2 snapshots of political moods in the country are, they of course do not indicate a linear shift within Czech society distant from the values of liberal democracy towards whatever it is that the upcoming coalition represents. Why is it that a crucial condition of Czech society seems to have put the values associated with Václav Havel aside for the moment?
A slow process
The thing is that neither the idealized version of the events of 1989 nor the darkest explanation of the current political situation in Czechia presents a full realistic picture. More than 3 decades ago, Czech society was not that idealistic, and the current Czech society is not that cynical. While the people in the cold November streets authentically wished for democracy, freedom and human rights, they no little wished for socio-economic surviving standards comparable with those of Western European states. Liberal democracy comes with capitalism. All they had at the time, however, was hope that society would manage to accomplish those things – and do so alternatively sooner than later. After forty years of communist rule, the challenge of building a democratic strategy and a capitalist economy was immense and came with unforeseen (at least by some) side effects. Disillusionment resulted from things like the unequal distribution of wealth resulting from the process of privatization of state-owned companies, a fast increase in crime in the 1990s, or the fact that reaching the economical level of West Germany with corresponding wages would definitely take more than a fewer years.
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Just like another post-socialist countries in Central Europe, Czechia, amid the chaotic 1990s, not only tried to consolidate its liberal democratic and capitalist strategy so that the state and society could effectively function, but also, importantly, to “catch up” to the West. This process was achieved by acceding to NATO in 1999 and the EU in 2004. From that point on, alternatively of enjoying a peaceful existence as a full-fledged part of the West, 2 unfortunate developments followed. First, Europe has faced almost constant crises always since 2008 – the financial and economical crisis, the alleged migration crisis, the pandemic, and then the war in Ukraine – all accompanied by the request for the EU to reinvent itself, resulting in more or little serious political divisions within the Union. Second – as is besides demonstrated in discussions about EU reinvention – it turned out that the catching-up of the “new” associate states has by no means ended with EU accession and, economically and arguably even politically, cannot be viewed as finished even today. Meanwhile, Czech politicians very early on learned to adopt a successful strategy of blaming the negative impact of these crises on Czechia on the incompetence of the European Union, alternatively than on the shortcomings of their own policies. The developments of the 1990s and 2010s inevitably led to a certain sobering up of Czech society after the hopeful spirit of 1989. “Belonging to the West” has, on 1 hand, been successfully achieved in terms of accessing the institutions, while on the another it remained a constant and abstract notion in Czech politics, present in campaigns and the rhetoric of political parties to this day.
Local pessimism
Following the fall of the Iron Curtain, Czechia managed to build a unchangeable and rather resilient strategy of democratic institutions with functioning checks and balances, as well as a strong civilian society. Looking especially at another countries in the region, Czechia may for a long time have seemed remarkably stable. Looking at various indicators in global comparison, Czechia is safe and economically prosperous – compared to another Central European economies, at least judging by macroeconomic data. These facts, however, are seemingly not reflected in the opinions of the Czech public. More than half of the Czech population thinks that the situation in the country is mostly developing in the wrong direction. Looking at the reasons for this assessment, 24 per cent of these respondents blame the transition to a marketplace economy and the western orientation of the country, including EU accession, while 21 per cent think the reason for pessimism is the multiple crises of the last decade. Only 18 per cent think the opposite, i.e. that Czechia is developing in the right direction. The last time more people held an optimistic alternatively than a pessimistic view was in 2020.
When it comes to trust in institutions, 73 per cent of people trust the army, 60 per cent trust NATO, 57 per cent trust the president, and around half of the population trust public media. However, only 45 per cent trust the EU and 30 per cent the lower chamber of parliament. Only 1 in 4 people trusts members of the government. Also, looking at interpersonal trust, 63 per cent of Czechs do not believe that most people can be trusted overall. Considering the importance of societal cohesion as a essential precondition for resilience in these dangerous times, these numbers do not look peculiarly good.
Bloc politics
Due to trends and phenomena not unfamiliar to another Central European states, political competition presently consists of 2 “blocs” of parties with limited inter-bloc mobility. Each of these organization groups, unfortunately, has been neglecting crucial issues vital for the country and society – 1 in home policy, the another in abroad policy.
First, there are the parties of the outgoing coalition, led by the Civic Democratic organization (ODS) and Petr Fiala. This includes another centre-right parties and the centre-left progressive Pirate Party, which, however, left the coalition before the end of the term. The second group is made up of the presently largest party, Andrej Babiš’s ANO, and its coalition partners, Motorists and the far-right SPD. Fiala’s government was rather successful in its abroad and even European policy (despite the historically rooted euroscepticism of the ODS). This was especially actual erstwhile it came to support for Ukraine, including the alleged ammunition initiative. It is these parties who repeatedly emphasize that Czechia belongs to the West. The SPOLU coalition (ODS, TOP 09, and the Christian Democrats) intended to usage this claim against ANO by implying that, if elected, Andrej Babiš would take the country distant from the West – in reaction to which Babiš promptly declared that the membership of Czechia in the EU or NATO is not to be questioned. The problem with the notion of the West is that, as it pertains to the imagination of the “pro-western” Czech political parties, it is rather vague. It is seen as the bearer of key values specified as democracy, the regulation of law, and the rules-based global order – contrasted with Russia, but besides Slovakia and Hungary and their current political leaderships. On the another hand, the approaches of Western European countries to issues like sex equality, fair taxation, or affordable housing are not embraced, especially by ODS. Nevertheless, the deficiency of attention devoted to uncovering solutions to the economical hardships of certain parts of the population, or even acknowledging their situation, contributed to SPOLU being defeated by ANO in the October elections. Looking at public expectations for the future government, ensuring social safety ranks second, behind improving the performance of the Czech economy. Particularly, people would like to see a simplification in the national debt and an increase in the affordability of housing.
On the another hand, Andrej Babiš and ANO, in a typically populist manner, have been promising a lot in many areas to many people. As unfulfillable as that is, the election results show that ANO successfully managed to attract comparatively poorer voters in socio-economically disadvantaged peripheral regions. ANO besides managed to take any voters from anti-system parties, specified as the SPD and besides the far-left Stačilo! (Enough!), both of whom argued for a referendum about the membership of Czechia in the EU and NATO. That is good news and shows that Czech voters are not peculiarly curious in leaving these institutions. Crucial harm to Czechia’s global position is about to be done by ANO partnering with the SPD and the Motorists, both of whom are close to the right end of the political spectrum and highly confrontational towards the European Union. There are besides considerable shortcomings in their abroad and defence policy programme mentioned above.
Reinventing 1989
For Czechia and its society to be strong and resilient vis-à-vis the many threats of today’s world, it is not adequate to go back to the ideas of 1989. They inactive supply a valuable basis for the functioning of politics and society. However, both Czech society and the planet around these values have changed – social inequalities, external military and hybrid threats, climate change, insufficient economical competitiveness, migration, demographic decline, radicalization, etc. For the ideals of 1989 not to stay a nostalgic monument to a planet that no longer exists, they request to be updated with current challenges in mind.
Pavlína Janebová is the investigation manager of the Association for global Affairs (AMO) in Prague. Her investigation focuses on Czech abroad and European policy and on the politics of Central European countries.
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