’Coalition Of The Willing’ Failed To Outplay Trump, Russia’s Medvedev Says

Former Russian President and top Kremlin national security official Dmitry Medvedev said on Tuesday that European leaders had failed to outplay Donald Trump, and that it remains unclear just how Ukraine’s Zelensky will prevent the issue of territorial concessions.

White House officials, including Trump himself in prior statements, have made it known that compromise regarding territory is indeed on the table. „The anti-Russian warmongering Coalition of the Willing failed to outplay @POTUS on his turf,” Medvedev said on X. „Europe thanked & sucked up to him.” The below optics certainly don’t contradict Medvedev. One commenter observes that Trump had likely „been waiting for a moment like this his whole life”…

I suppose Trump had been waiting for a moment like this his whole life…

If you truly represent a sovereign nation, you don’t just go along. You tell the host that this spectacle is humiliating, that he can play those games with others – but you don’t allow yourself to be… pic.twitter.com/t87UOaKgH8

— Zlatti71 (@Zlatti_71) August 19, 2025

Medvedev said the question remains „what tune” Zelenskyy would play „about guarantees & territories back home, once he’s put on his green military uniform again.”

It is true that far-right elements within his own military and political establishment would react fiercely to any acts of territorial concessions – which would likely result in acts of violence, and possibly even threats on Zelensky’s life.

At the same time, coming off his Alaska summit with Trump, Russia’s President Putin remains firmly in the driver’s seat, amid steady ground advances on the battlefield.

During a break in Monday’s meeting among seven EU officials and Zelensky, German Chancellor Merz revealed during a break in talks, „the American president spoke with the Russian president on the phone and agreed that there would be a meeting between the Russian president and the Ukrainian president within the next two weeks.”

But whether this happens or not will largely depend of what happens in the interim, and Kiev’s attitude and statements on what it’s willing to concede.

The geopolitics source Moon of Alabama highlights the perspective of former MI6 official and diplomat Alastair Crooke in the following:

Alastair Crooke suggests (video) that the peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine will follow the outline of the Istanbul Agreement negotiated in March 2022 between Ukraine and Russia. Ukraine, under pressure from the West, had at that time refrained from signing it.

The Istanbul Agreement did include security guarantees (emphasis added):

The agreement assumes:
…
2. Possible guarantor states: Great Britain, China, Russia, the United States, France, Turkey, Germany, Canada, Italy, Poland, Israel. The free accession of other states to the treaty is proposed, in particular the Russian Federation proposes Belarus.
…
4. Ukraine does not join any military alliances, does not deploy foreign military bases and contingents, and conducts international military exercises only with the consent of the guarantor states. For their part, the guarantor states confirm their intention to promote Ukraine’s membership in the European Union.

5. The guarantor states and Ukraine agree that in the event of aggression, any armed attack on Ukraine or any military operation against Ukraine, each of the Guarantor States, after urgent and immediate consultations between them (which shall be held within no more than three days), in the exercise of the right to individual or collective self-defense recognized by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will provide (in response to and on the basis of an official request from Ukraine) assistance to Ukraine, as a permanently neutral state under attack, by immediately taking such individual or joint action as may be necessary, including closing airspace over Ukraine, providing necessary weapons, using armed force in order to restore and subsequently maintain the security of Ukraine as a permanently neutral state.

Any such armed attack (any military operation) and all measures taken as a result thereof shall be immediately reported to the Security Council. Such measures shall cease when the Security Council takes the measures necessary to restore and maintain international peace and security.

The mechanism for implementing security guarantees for Ukraine, based on the results of additional consultations between Ukraine and the Guarantor States, will be regulated in the Treaty, taking into account protection from possible provocations.

Again:

… such guarantee will of course come with conditions attached to it. Either Ukraine will accept those or it will never be secure from outer interference.

So yes, the Ukraine can have 'security guarantees’. But the conditions of those will be set by the main guarantor – which has to be Russia.

Trump seems to have understood that. How long will it take those European 'leaders’ to get it?

Alastair Crooke speaks to Judge Andrew Napolitano:

Some of the awkward moments, optics, and tensions on display in the White House on Monday are consistent with the above take…

Ups! Meloni verdreht die Augen, während Kanzler Merz Trump belehrt, mit Putin erst ein Waffenstillstand zu vereinbaren. Nach Motto: ‚Ist doch schon lääängst vom Putin-Tisch, Friedrich!‘ – das war von Merz keine Stärke, wie viele in Berlin es gerne interpretieren wollen, er… pic.twitter.com/qo3gIYUPV5

— Zara Riffler (@ZaraRiffler) August 18, 2025

Below are some more Tuesday geopolitical headlines and developments via Newsquawk….

• US and Europe to work immediately on Ukraine security guarantees, via Bloomberg.
• Poland PM Tusk will take part in meeting of the Coalition of the Willing at 11:00BST/06:00EDT, according to a spokesperson.
• Ukraine Foreign Minister says future trilateral leaders meeting can bring a breakthrough on the path to peace.
• US President Trump posted that he had a very good meeting with Ukrainian President Zelensky and European leaders, which ended in a further meeting in the Oval Office and during the meeting, they discussed security guarantees for Ukraine, which would be provided by the various European countries with coordination with the US. Trump added everyone is very happy about the possibility of peace for Russia and Ukraine, and at the conclusion of the meetings, he called Russian President Putin and began the arrangements for a meeting, at a location to be determined, between President Putin and President Zelensky. Furthermore, Trump said after that meeting takes place, they will have a trilateral between Trump, Putin and Zelensky, as well as noted that this was a very good, early step for a war that has been going on for almost four years and that VP Vance, Secretary of State Rubio, and Special Envoy Witkoff are coordinating with Russia and Ukraine.
• Russia’s Kremlin said US President Trump and Russian President Putin held a phone call which lasted 40 minutes and they discussed the idea of exploring the possibility of raising the level of Russian and Ukrainian representatives in the negotiations, while Putin warmly thanked Trump for the hospitality and well-organized meeting in Alaska, as well as for progress achieved at the summit. Furthermore, Putin and Trump spoke in favour of the continuation of direct talks between the Russian and Ukrainian delegations, while they agreed to continue close contact with each other on the Ukrainian crisis and other issues.
• Ukrainian President Zelensky said we need not a pause in the war, but real peace and territorial issues will be decided between Russia and Ukraine. Zelensky said he discussed security guarantees with Trump and European leaders, and received an important signal from the US on being part of security guarantees and help in coordinating it. Furthermore, he said the US offers to have a trilateral meeting as soon as possible and that Ukraine is ready for any format to meet with Putin.
• Ukraine reportedly offered a USD 100bln weapons deal to US President Trump in an effort to win security guarantees, according to the Financial Times citing documents laying out Kyiv’s proposal to Trump at the White House meeting.
• US Secretary of State Rubio told Fox News that they will work with European allies and non-European countries to build security guarantees for Ukraine. Rubio said he was in the room when Trump and Putin spoke, while he added that Trump suggested to Putin that he meet with Zelensky.
• NATO Secretary General Rutte said it was a very successful day in Washington where security guarantees were discussed and more details on security guarantees will be discussed in the coming days, while he added it is a breakthrough that the US will get involved and they are discussing some Article 5-type arrangement.
• European Commission President Von der Leyen said after the White House meeting that they are here as allies and friends for peace in Ukraine and in Europe, while she added this is an important moment as they continue to work on strong security guarantees for Ukraine.
• German Chancellor Merz that he feels these are decisive days for Ukraine and is not sure if Russian President Putin will have the courage to come to a summit with Zelensky present, while he added that expectations were not only met but were exceeded from this meeting. Merz also stated that US President Trump spoke with Russian President Putin and agreed that a Putin-Zelenskiy meeting will happen within two weeks, while the location is yet undecided, and that will be followed by a three-way meeting involving Trump.
• Finland’s President Stubb said they agreed on security guarantees and steps forward, as well as noted that talks were constructive and the Coalition of the Willing has already worked on security guarantees which they will build upon. Stubb also stated there is nothing concrete about US participation in security guarantees and that US President will inform them, with details of security guarantees to be ironed out in the next week or so.
• Debris from a destroyed Ukrainian drone sparked a fire at an oil refinery and hospital in Russia’s Volgograd, according to the regional administration.
• North Korea leader Kim said joint US-South Korea military drills show willingness for war provocation, while he also stated that the security environment requires North Korea to expand its nuclear armament rapidly.
• „Israeli media: The Chief of Staff will present today to the Minister of Defense the plan to occupy Gaza City”, according to Al Arabiya.

* * *

The next big question and milestone will be whether this series of high-level peace meetings will continue, leading to the big trilateral Putin-Trump-Zelensky meeting that the White House is hoping for.